Bayesian causal discovery offers the power to quantify epistemic uncertainties among a broad range of structurally diverse causal theories potentially explaining the data, represented in forms of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, existing methods struggle with efficient DAG sampling due to the complex acyclicity constraint. In this study, we propose a scalable Bayesian approach to effectively learn the posterior distribution over causal graphs given observational data thanks to the ability to generate DAGs without explicitly enforcing acyclicity. Specifically, we introduce a novel differentiable DAG sampling method that can generate a valid acyclic causal graph by mapping an unconstrained distribution of implicit topological orders to a distribution over DAGs. Given this efficient DAG sampling scheme, we are able to model the posterior distribution over causal graphs using a simple variational distribution over a continuous domain, which can be learned via the variational inference framework. Extensive empirical experiments on both simulated and real datasets demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed model compared to several state-of-the-art baselines.
Many recent works have explored using language models for planning problems. One line of research focuses on translating natural language descriptions of planning tasks into structured planning languages, such as the planning domain definition language (PDDL). While this approach is promising, accurately measuring the quality of generated PDDL code continues to pose significant challenges. First, generated PDDL code is typically evaluated using planning validators that check whether the problem can be solved with a planner. This method is insufficient because a language model might generate valid PDDL code that does not align with the natural language description of the task. Second, existing evaluation sets often have natural language descriptions of the planning task that closely resemble the ground truth PDDL, reducing the challenge of the task. To bridge this gap, we introduce \benchmarkName, a benchmark designed to evaluate language models' ability to generate PDDL code from natural language descriptions of planning tasks. We begin by creating a PDDL equivalence algorithm that rigorously evaluates the correctness of PDDL code generated by language models by flexibly comparing it against a ground truth PDDL. Then, we present a dataset of $132,037$ text-to-PDDL pairs across 13 different tasks, with varying levels of difficulty. Finally, we evaluate several API-access and open-weight language models that reveal this task's complexity. For example, $87.6\%$ of the PDDL problem descriptions generated by GPT-4o are syntactically parseable, $82.2\%$ are valid, solve-able problems, but only $35.1\%$ are semantically correct, highlighting the need for a more rigorous benchmark for this problem.
Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic finite-sample guarantees. Yet, existing methods for conformal prediction of causal effects are limited to binary/discrete treatments and make highly restrictive assumptions such as known propensity scores. In this work, we provide a novel conformal prediction method for potential outcomes of continuous treatments. We account for the additional uncertainty introduced through propensity estimation so that our conformal prediction intervals are valid even if the propensity score is unknown. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) We derive finite-sample prediction intervals for potential outcomes of continuous treatments. (2) We provide an algorithm for calculating the derived intervals. (3) We demonstrate the effectiveness of the conformal prediction intervals in experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose conformal prediction for continuous treatments when the propensity score is unknown and must be estimated from data.
Camera-based 3D semantic scene completion (SSC) is pivotal for predicting complicated 3D layouts with limited 2D image observations. The existing mainstream solutions generally leverage temporal information by roughly stacking history frames to supplement the current frame, such straightforward temporal modeling inevitably diminishes valid clues and increases learning difficulty. To address this problem, we present HTCL, a novel Hierarchical Temporal Context Learning paradigm for improving camera-based semantic scene completion. The primary innovation of this work involves decomposing temporal context learning into two hierarchical steps: (a) cross-frame affinity measurement and (b) affinity-based dynamic refinement. Firstly, to separate critical relevant context from redundant information, we introduce the pattern affinity with scale-aware isolation and multiple independent learners for fine-grained contextual correspondence modeling. Subsequently, to dynamically compensate for incomplete observations, we adaptively refine the feature sampling locations based on initially identified locations with high affinity and their neighboring relevant regions. Our method ranks $1^{st}$ on the SemanticKITTI benchmark and even surpasses LiDAR-based methods in terms of mIoU on the OpenOccupancy benchmark. Our code is available on https://github.com/Arlo0o/HTCL.
How did humanity coax mathematics from the aether? We explore the Platonic view that mathematics can be discovered from its axioms - a game of conjecture and proof. We describe Minimo (Mathematics from Intrinsic Motivation): an agent that jointly learns to pose challenging problems for itself (conjecturing) and solve them (theorem proving). Given a mathematical domain axiomatized in dependent type theory, we first combine methods for constrained decoding and type-directed synthesis to sample valid conjectures from a language model. Our method guarantees well-formed conjectures by construction, even as we start with a randomly initialized model. We use the same model to represent a policy and value function for guiding proof search. Our agent targets generating hard but provable conjectures - a moving target, since its own theorem proving ability also improves as it trains. We propose novel methods for hindsight relabeling on proof search trees to significantly improve the agent's sample efficiency in both tasks. Experiments on 3 axiomatic domains (propositional logic, arithmetic and group theory) demonstrate that our agent can bootstrap from only the axioms, self-improving in generating true and challenging conjectures and in finding proofs.
As DeepFake video manipulation techniques escalate, posing profound threats, the urgent need to develop efficient detection strategies is underscored. However, one particular issue lies with facial images being mis-detected, often originating from degraded videos or adversarial attacks, leading to unexpected temporal artifacts that can undermine the efficacy of DeepFake video detection techniques. This paper introduces a novel method for robust DeepFake video detection, harnessing the power of the proposed Graph-Regularized Attentive Convolutional Entanglement (GRACE) based on the graph convolutional network with graph Laplacian to address the aforementioned challenges. First, conventional Convolution Neural Networks are deployed to perform spatiotemporal features for the entire video. Then, the spatial and temporal features are mutually entangled by constructing a graph with sparse constraint, enforcing essential features of valid face images in the noisy face sequences remaining, thus augmenting stability and performance for DeepFake video detection. Furthermore, the Graph Laplacian prior is proposed in the graph convolutional network to remove the noise pattern in the feature space to further improve the performance. Comprehensive experiments are conducted to illustrate that our proposed method delivers state-of-the-art performance in DeepFake video detection under noisy face sequences. The source code is available at https://github.com/ming053l/GRACE.
In systems and network neuroscience, many common practices in brain connectomic analysis are often not properly scrutinized. One such practice is mapping a predetermined set of sub-circuits, like functional networks (FNs), onto subjects' functional connectomes (FCs) without adequately assessing the information-theoretic appropriateness of the partition. Another practice that goes unchallenged is thresholding weighted FCs to remove spurious connections without justifying the chosen threshold. This paper leverages recent theoretical advances in Stochastic Block Models (SBMs) to formally define and quantify the information-theoretic fitness (e.g., prominence) of a predetermined set of FNs when mapped to individual FCs under different fMRI task conditions. Our framework allows for evaluating any combination of FC granularity, FN partition, and thresholding strategy, thereby optimizing these choices to preserve important topological features of the human brain connectomes. By applying to the Human Connectome Project with Schaefer parcellations at multiple levels of granularity, the framework showed that the common thresholding value of 0.25 was indeed information-theoretically valid for group-average FCs despite its previous lack of justification. Our results pave the way for the proper use of FNs and thresholding methods and provide insights for future research in individualized parcellations.
A data analysis pipeline is a structured sequence of steps that transforms raw data into meaningful insights by integrating various analysis algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel statistical test to assess the significance of data analysis pipelines in feature selection problems. Our approach enables the systematic development of valid statistical tests applicable to any feature selection pipeline composed of predefined components. We develop this framework based on selective inference, a statistical technique that has recently gained attention for data-driven hypotheses. As a proof of concept, we consider feature selection pipelines for linear models, composed of three missing value imputation algorithms, three outlier detection algorithms, and three feature selection algorithms. We theoretically prove that our statistical test can control the probability of false positive feature selection at any desired level, and demonstrate its validity and effectiveness through experiments on synthetic and real data. Additionally, we present an implementation framework that facilitates testing across any configuration of these feature selection pipelines without extra implementation costs.
Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the prediction sets remain informative. Despite significant efforts to address each of these issues individually, a principled framework that reconciles these two objectives has been missing in the CP literature. In this paper, we develop Conformal Prediction with Length-Optimization (CPL) - a novel and practical framework that constructs prediction sets with (near-) optimal length while ensuring conditional validity under various classes of covariate shifts, including the key cases of marginal and group-conditional coverage. In the infinite sample regime, we provide strong duality results which indicate that CPL achieves conditional validity and length optimality. In the finite sample regime, we show that CPL constructs conditionally valid prediction sets. Our extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate the superior prediction set size performance of CPL compared to state-of-the-art methods across diverse real-world and synthetic datasets in classification, regression, and large language model-based multiple choice question answering. An Implementation of our algorithm can be accessed at the following link: https://github.com/shayankiyani98/CP.
In this paper, we describe the extraction of all the location entries from a prominent Swedish encyclopedia from the early 20th century, the \textit{Nordisk Familjebok} `Nordic Family Book.' We focused on the second edition called \textit{Uggleupplagan}, which comprises 38 volumes and over 182,000 articles. This makes it one of the most extensive Swedish encyclopedias. Using a classifier, we first determined the category of the entries. We found that approximately 22 percent of them were locations. We applied a named entity recognition to these entries and we linked them to Wikidata. Wikidata enabled us to extract their precise geographic locations resulting in almost 18,000 valid coordinates. We then analyzed the distribution of these locations and the entry selection process. It showed a higher density within Sweden, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The paper sheds light on the selection and representation of geographic information in the \textit{Nordisk Familjebok}, providing insights into historical and societal perspectives. It also paves the way for future investigations into entry selection in different time periods and comparative analyses among various encyclopedias.
Pixel-level Video Understanding in the Wild Challenge (PVUW) focus on complex video understanding. In this CVPR 2024 workshop, we add two new tracks, Complex Video Object Segmentation Track based on MOSE dataset and Motion Expression guided Video Segmentation track based on MeViS dataset. In the two new tracks, we provide additional videos and annotations that feature challenging elements, such as the disappearance and reappearance of objects, inconspicuous small objects, heavy occlusions, and crowded environments in MOSE. Moreover, we provide a new motion expression guided video segmentation dataset MeViS to study the natural language-guided video understanding in complex environments. These new videos, sentences, and annotations enable us to foster the development of a more comprehensive and robust pixel-level understanding of video scenes in complex environments and realistic scenarios. The MOSE challenge had 140 registered teams in total, 65 teams participated the validation phase and 12 teams made valid submissions in the final challenge phase. The MeViS challenge had 225 registered teams in total, 50 teams participated the validation phase and 5 teams made valid submissions in the final challenge phase.
We propose CoNSAL (Combining Neural networks and Symbolic regression for Analytical Lyapunov function) to construct analytical Lyapunov functions for nonlinear dynamic systems. This framework contains a neural Lyapunov function and a symbolic regression component, where symbolic regression is applied to distill the neural network to precise analytical forms. Our approach utilizes symbolic regression not only as a tool for translation but also as a means to uncover counterexamples. This procedure terminates when no counterexamples are found in the analytical formulation. Compared with previous results, CoNSAL directly produces an analytical form of the Lyapunov function with improved interpretability in both the learning process and the final results. We apply CoNSAL to 2-D inverted pendulum, path following, Van Der Pol Oscillator, 3-D trig dynamics, 4-D rotating wheel pendulum, 6-D 3-bus power system, and demonstrate that our algorithm successfully finds their valid Lyapunov functions. Code examples are available at https://github.com/HaohanZou/CoNSAL.
Bandits with preference feedback present a powerful tool for optimizing unknown target functions when only pairwise comparisons are allowed instead of direct value queries. This model allows for incorporating human feedback into online inference and optimization and has been employed in systems for fine-tuning large language models. The problem is well understood in simplified settings with linear target functions or over finite small domains that limit practical interest. Taking the next step, we consider infinite domains and nonlinear (kernelized) rewards. In this setting, selecting a pair of actions is quite challenging and requires balancing exploration and exploitation at two levels: within the pair, and along the iterations of the algorithm. We propose MAXMINLCB, which emulates this trade-off as a zero-sum Stackelberg game, and chooses action pairs that are informative and yield favorable rewards. MAXMINLCB consistently outperforms existing algorithms and satisfies an anytime-valid rate-optimal regret guarantee. This is due to our novel preference-based confidence sequences for kernelized logistic estimators.
Constructing prediction intervals for time series forecasting is challenging, particularly when practitioners rely solely on point forecasts. While previous research has focused on creating increasingly efficient intervals, we argue that standard measures alone are inadequate. Beyond efficiency, prediction intervals must adapt their width based on the difficulty of the prediction while preserving coverage regardless of complexity. To address these issues, we propose combining Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression (HQR) with Width-Adaptive Conformal Inference (WACI). This integrated procedure guarantees theoretical coverage and enables interval widths to vary with predictive uncertainty. We assess its performance using both a synthetic example and a real world Electricity Price Forecasting scenario. Our results show that this combined approach meets or surpasses typical benchmarks for validity and efficiency, while also fulfilling important yet often overlooked practical requirements.
While fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) excel in generating grammatically valid SQL in Text-to-SQL parsing, they often struggle to ensure semantic accuracy in queries, leading to user confusion and diminished system usability. To tackle this challenge, we introduce SQLFixAgent, a new consistency-enhanced multi-agent collaborative framework designed for detecting and repairing erroneous SQL. Our framework comprises a core agent, SQLRefiner, alongside two auxiliary agents: SQLReviewer and QueryCrafter. The SQLReviewer agent employs the rubber duck debugging method to identify potential semantic mismatches between SQL and user query. If the error is detected, the QueryCrafter agent generates multiple SQL as candidate repairs using a fine-tuned SQLTool. Subsequently, leveraging similar repair retrieval and failure memory reflection, the SQLRefiner agent selects the most fitting SQL statement from the candidates as the final repair. We evaluated our proposed framework on five Text-to-SQL benchmarks. The experimental results show that our method consistently enhances the performance of the baseline model, specifically achieving an execution accuracy improvement of over 3% on the Bird benchmark. Our framework also has a higher token efficiency compared to other advanced methods, making it more competitive.
The evolution of large language models (LLMs) has enhanced the planning capabilities of language agents in diverse real-world scenarios. Despite these advancements, the potential of LLM-powered agents to comprehend ambiguous user instructions for reasoning and decision-making is still under exploration. In this work, we introduce a new task, Proactive Agent Planning, which requires language agents to predict clarification needs based on user-agent conversation and agent-environment interaction, invoke external tools to collect valid information, and generate a plan to fulfill the user's demands. To study this practical problem, we establish a new benchmark dataset, Ask-before-Plan. To tackle the deficiency of LLMs in proactive planning, we propose a novel multi-agent framework, Clarification-Execution-Planning (\texttt{CEP}), which consists of three agents specialized in clarification, execution, and planning. We introduce the trajectory tuning scheme for the clarification agent and static execution agent, as well as the memory recollection mechanism for the dynamic execution agent. Extensive evaluations and comprehensive analyses conducted on the Ask-before-Plan dataset validate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.
The reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) are becoming a central focus of study in NLP. In this paper, we consider the case of syllogistic reasoning, an area of deductive reasoning studied extensively in logic and cognitive psychology. Previous research has shown that pre-trained LLMs exhibit reasoning biases, such as $\textit{content effects}$, avoid answering that $\textit{no conclusion follows}$, display human-like difficulties, and struggle with multi-step reasoning. We contribute to this research line by systematically investigating the effects of chain-of-thought reasoning, in-context learning (ICL), and supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on syllogistic reasoning, considering syllogisms with conclusions that support or violate world knowledge, as well as ones with multiple premises. Crucially, we go beyond the standard focus on accuracy, with an in-depth analysis of the conclusions generated by the models. Our results suggest that the behavior of pre-trained LLMs can be explained by heuristics studied in cognitive science and that both ICL and SFT improve model performance on valid inferences, although only the latter mitigates most reasoning biases without harming model consistency.
Rigorously establishing the safety of black-box machine learning models concerning critical risk measures is important for providing guarantees about model behavior. Recently, Bates et. al. (JACM '24) introduced the notion of a risk controlling prediction set (RCPS) for producing prediction sets that are statistically guaranteed low risk from machine learning models. Our method extends this notion to the sequential setting, where we provide guarantees even when the data is collected adaptively, and ensures that the risk guarantee is anytime-valid, i.e., simultaneously holds at all time steps. Further, we propose a framework for constructing RCPSes for active labeling, i.e., allowing one to use a labeling policy that chooses whether to query the true label for each received data point and ensures that the expected proportion of data points whose labels are queried are below a predetermined label budget. We also describe how to use predictors (i.e., the machine learning model for which we provide risk control guarantees) to further improve the utility of our RCPSes by estimating the expected risk conditioned on the covariates. We characterize the optimal choices of label policy and predictor under a fixed label budget and show a regret result that relates the estimation error of the optimal labeling policy and predictor to the wealth process that underlies our RCPSes. Lastly, we present practical ways of formulating label policies and empirically show that our label policies use fewer labels to reach higher utility than naive baseline labeling strategies on both simulations and real data.
Semantic code search, retrieving code that matches a given natural language query, is an important task to improve productivity in software engineering. Existing code search datasets face limitations: they rely on human annotators who assess code primarily through semantic understanding rather than functional verification, leading to potential inaccuracies and scalability issues. Additionally, current evaluation metrics often overlook the multi-choice nature of code search. This paper introduces CoSQA+, pairing high-quality queries from CoSQA with multiple suitable codes. We develop an automated pipeline featuring multiple model-based candidate selections and the novel test-driven agent annotation system. Among a single Large Language Model (LLM) annotator and Python expert annotators (without test-based verification), agents leverage test-based verification and achieve the highest accuracy of 92.0%. Through extensive experiments, CoSQA+ has demonstrated superior quality over CoSQA. Models trained on CoSQA+ exhibit improved performance. We provide the code and data at https://github.com/DeepSoftwareAnalytics/CoSQA_Plus.
We develop new conformal inference methods for obtaining validity guarantees on the output of large language models (LLMs). Prior work in conformal language modeling identifies a subset of the text that satisfies a high-probability guarantee of correctness. These methods work by filtering claims from the LLM's original response if a scoring function evaluated on the claim fails to exceed a threshold calibrated via split conformal prediction. Existing methods in this area suffer from two deficiencies. First, the guarantee stated is not conditionally valid. The trustworthiness of the filtering step may vary based on the topic of the response. Second, because the scoring function is imperfect, the filtering step can remove many valuable and accurate claims. We address both of these challenges via two new conformal methods. First, we generalize the conditional conformal procedure of Gibbs et al. (2023) in order to adaptively issue weaker guarantees when they are required to preserve the utility of the output. Second, we show how to systematically improve the quality of the scoring function via a novel algorithm for differentiating through the conditional conformal procedure. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on biography and medical question-answering datasets.