Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging is sensitive to the microstructural properties of brain tissue. However, estimating clinically and scientifically relevant microstructural properties from the measured signals remains a highly challenging inverse problem that machine learning may help solve. This study investigated if recently developed rotationally invariant spherical convolutional neural networks can improve microstructural parameter estimation. We trained a spherical convolutional neural network to predict the ground-truth parameter values from efficiently simulated noisy data and applied the trained network to imaging data acquired in a clinical setting to generate microstructural parameter maps. Our network performed better than the spherical mean technique and multi-layer perceptron, achieving higher prediction accuracy than the spherical mean technique with less rotational variance than the multi-layer perceptron. Although we focused on a constrained two-compartment model of neuronal tissue, the network and training pipeline are generalizable and can be used to estimate the parameters of any Gaussian compartment model. To highlight this, we also trained the network to predict the parameters of a three-compartment model that enables the estimation of apparent neural soma density using tensor-valued diffusion encoding.
Harmonic retrieval techniques are the foundation of radio channel sounding, estimation, and modeling. This paper introduces a Deep Learning approach for joint delay- and Doppler estimation from frequency and time samples of a radio channel transfer function. Our work estimates the two-dimensional parameters from a signal containing an unknown number of paths. Compared to existing deep learning-based methods, the signal parameters are not estimated via classification but in a quasi-grid-free manner. This alleviates the bias, spectral leakage, and ghost targets that grid-based approaches produce. The proposed architecture also reliably estimates the number of paths in the measurement. Hence, it jointly solves the model order selection and parameter estimation task. Additionally, we propose a multi-channel windowing of the data to increase the estimator's robustness. We also compare the performance to other harmonic retrieval methods and integrate it into an existing maximum likelihood estimator for efficient initialization of a gradient-based iteration.
This paper explores learning emulators for parameter estimation with uncertainty estimation of high-dimensional dynamical systems. We assume access to a computationally complex simulator that inputs a candidate parameter and outputs a corresponding multichannel time series. Our task is to accurately estimate a range of likely values of the underlying parameters. Standard iterative approaches necessitate running the simulator many times, which is computationally prohibitive. This paper describes a novel framework for learning feature embeddings of observed dynamics jointly with an emulator that can replace high-cost simulators for parameter estimation. Leveraging a contrastive learning approach, our method exploits intrinsic data properties within and across parameter and trajectory domains. On a coupled 396-dimensional multiscale Lorenz 96 system, our method significantly outperforms a typical parameter estimation method based on predefined metrics and a classical numerical simulator, and with only 1.19% of the baseline's computation time. Ablation studies highlight the potential of explicitly designing learned emulators for parameter estimation by leveraging contrastive learning.
Sinusoidal parameter estimation is a fundamental task in applications from spectral analysis to time-series forecasting. Estimating the sinusoidal frequency parameter by gradient descent is, however, often impossible as the error function is non-convex and densely populated with local minima. The growing family of differentiable signal processing methods has therefore been unable to tune the frequency of oscillatory components, preventing their use in a broad range of applications. This work presents a technique for joint sinusoidal frequency and amplitude estimation using the Wirtinger derivatives of a complex exponential surrogate and any first order gradient-based optimizer, enabling end to-end training of neural network controllers for unconstrained sinusoidal models.
Although the Bayesian paradigm offers a formal framework for estimating the entire probability distribution over uncertain parameters, its online implementation can be challenging due to high computational costs. We suggest the Adaptive Recursive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ARMCMC) method, which eliminates the shortcomings of conventional online techniques while computing the entire probability density function of model parameters. The limitations to Gaussian noise, the application to only linear in the parameters (LIP) systems, and the persistent excitation (PE) needs are some of these drawbacks. In ARMCMC, a temporal forgetting factor (TFF)-based variable jump distribution is proposed. The forgetting factor can be presented adaptively using the TFF in many dynamical systems as an alternative to a constant hyperparameter. By offering a trade-off between exploitation and exploration, the specific jump distribution has been optimised towards hybrid/multi-modal systems that permit inferences among modes. These trade-off are adjusted based on parameter evolution rate. We demonstrate that ARMCMC requires fewer samples than conventional MCMC methods to achieve the same precision and reliability. We demonstrate our approach using parameter estimation in a soft bending actuator and the Hunt-Crossley dynamic model, two challenging hybrid/multi-modal benchmarks. Additionally, we compare our method with recursive least squares and the particle filter, and show that our technique has significantly more accurate point estimates as well as a decrease in tracking error of the value of interest.
Symbolic recovery of differential equations is the ambitious attempt at automating the derivation of governing equations with the use of machine learning techniques. In contrast to classical methods which assume the structure of the equation to be known and focus on the estimation of specific parameters, these algorithms aim to learn the structure and the parameters simultaneously. While the uniqueness and, therefore, the identifiability of parameters of governing equations are a well-addressed problem in the field of parameter estimation, it has not been investigated for symbolic recovery. However, this problem should be even more present in this field since the algorithms aim to cover larger spaces of governing equations. In this paper, we investigate under which conditions a solution of a differential equation does not uniquely determine the equation itself. For various classes of differential equations, we provide both necessary and sufficient conditions for a function to uniquely determine the corresponding differential equation. We then use our results to devise numerical algorithms aiming to determine whether a function solves a differential equation uniquely. Finally, we provide extensive numerical experiments showing that our algorithms can indeed guarantee the uniqueness of the learned governing differential equation, without assuming any knowledge about the analytic form of function, thereby ensuring the reliability of the learned equation.
This paper presents a data-driven, task-specific paradigm for experimental design, to shorten acquisition time, reduce costs, and accelerate the deployment of imaging devices. Current approaches in experimental design focus on model-parameter estimation and require specification of a particular model, whereas in imaging, other tasks may drive the design. Furthermore, such approaches often lead to intractable optimization problems in real-world imaging applications. Here we present a new paradigm for experimental design that simultaneously optimizes the design (set of image channels) and trains a machine-learning model to execute a user-specified image-analysis task. The approach obtains data densely-sampled over the measurement space (many image channels) for a small number of acquisitions, then identifies a subset of channels of prespecified size that best supports the task. We propose a method: TADRED for TAsk-DRiven Experimental Design in imaging, to identify the most informative channel-subset whilst simultaneously training a network to execute the task given the subset. Experiments demonstrate the potential of TADRED in diverse imaging applications: several clinically-relevant tasks in magnetic resonance imaging; and remote sensing and physiological applications of hyperspectral imaging. Results show substantial improvement over classical experimental design, two recent application-specific methods within the new paradigm, and state-of-the-art approaches in supervised feature selection. We anticipate further applications of our approach. Code is available: https://github.com/sbb-gh/experimental-design-multichannel
Quantifying the parameters and corresponding uncertainties of hundreds of strongly lensed quasar systems holds the key to resolving one of the most important scientific questions: the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) tension. The commonly used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method has been too time-consuming to achieve this goal, yet recent work has shown that convolution neural networks (CNNs) can be an alternative with seven orders of magnitude improvement in speed. With 31,200 simulated strongly lensed quasar images, we explore the usage of Vision Transformer (ViT) for simulated strong gravitational lensing for the first time. We show that ViT could reach competitive results compared with CNNs, and is specifically good at some lensing parameters, including the most important mass-related parameters such as the center of lens $\theta_{1}$ and $\theta_{2}$, the ellipticities $e_1$ and $e_2$, and the radial power-law slope $\gamma'$. With this promising preliminary result, we believe the ViT (or attention-based) network architecture can be an important tool for strong lensing science for the next generation of surveys. The open source of our code and data is in \url{https://github.com/kuanweih/strong_lensing_vit_resnet}.
Machine learning is a powerful approach for fitting microstructural models to diffusion MRI data. Early machine learning microstructure imaging implementations trained regressors to estimate model parameters in a supervised way, using synthetic training data with known ground truth. However, a drawback of this approach is that the choice of training data impacts fitted parameter values. Self-supervised learning is emerging as an attractive alternative to supervised learning in this context. Thus far, both supervised and self-supervised learning have typically been applied to isotropic models, such as intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM), as opposed to models where the directionality of anisotropic structures is also estimated. In this paper, we demonstrate self-supervised machine learning model fitting for a directional microstructural model. In particular, we fit a combined T1-ball-stick model to the multidimensional diffusion (MUDI) challenge diffusion-relaxation dataset. Our self-supervised approach shows clear improvements in parameter estimation and computational time, for both simulated and in-vivo brain data, compared to standard non-linear least squares fitting. Code for the artificial neural net constructed for this study is available for public use from the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/jplte/deep-T1-ball-stick
Computational models have become a powerful tool in the quantitative sciences to understand the behaviour of complex systems that evolve in time. However, they often contain a potentially large number of free parameters whose values cannot be obtained from theory but need to be inferred from data. This is especially the case for models in the social sciences, economics, or computational epidemiology. Yet many current parameter estimation methods are mathematically involved and computationally slow to run. In this paper we present a computationally simple and fast method to retrieve accurate probability densities for model parameters using neural differential equations. We present a pipeline comprising multi-agent models acting as forward solvers for systems of ordinary or stochastic differential equations, and a neural network to then extract parameters from the data generated by the model. The two combined create a powerful tool that can quickly estimate densities on model parameters, even for very large systems. We demonstrate the method on synthetic time series data of the SIR model of the spread of infection, and perform an in-depth analysis of the Harris-Wilson model of economic activity on a network, representing a non-convex problem. For the latter, we apply our method both to synthetic data and to data of economic activity across Greater London. We find that our method calibrates the model orders of magnitude more accurately than a previous study of the same dataset using classical techniques, while running between 195 and 390 times faster.
Neural point estimators are neural networks that map data to parameter point estimates. They are fast, likelihood free and, due to their amortised nature, amenable to fast bootstrap-based uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we aim to increase the awareness of statisticians to this relatively new inferential tool, and to facilitate its adoption by providing user-friendly open-source software. We also give attention to the ubiquitous problem of making inference from replicated data, which we address in the neural setting using permutation-invariant neural networks. Through extensive simulation studies we show that these neural point estimators can quickly and optimally (in a Bayes sense) estimate parameters in weakly-identified and highly-parameterised models with relative ease. We demonstrate their applicability through an analysis of extreme sea-surface temperature in the Red Sea where, after training, we obtain parameter estimates and bootstrap-based confidence intervals from hundreds of spatial fields in a fraction of a second.
Structural monitoring for complex built environments often suffers from mismatch between design, laboratory testing, and actual built parameters. Additionally, real-world structural identification problems encounter many challenges. For example, the lack of accurate baseline models, high dimensionality, and complex multivariate partial differential equations (PDEs) pose significant difficulties in training and learning conventional data-driven algorithms. This paper explores a new framework, dubbed NeuralSI, for structural identification by augmenting PDEs that govern structural dynamics with neural networks. Our approach seeks to estimate nonlinear parameters from governing equations. We consider the vibration of nonlinear beams with two unknown parameters, one that represents geometric and material variations, and another that captures energy losses in the system mainly through damping. The data for parameter estimation is obtained from a limited set of measurements, which is conducive to applications in structural health monitoring where the exact state of an existing structure is typically unknown and only a limited amount of data samples can be collected in the field. The trained model can also be extrapolated under both standard and extreme conditions using the identified structural parameters. We compare with pure data-driven Neural Networks and other classical Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). Our approach reduces both interpolation and extrapolation errors in displacement distribution by two to five orders of magnitude over the baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/human-analysis/neural-structural-identification
In this paper, we consider the task of clustering a set of individual time series while modeling each cluster, that is, model-based time series clustering. The task requires a parametric model with sufficient flexibility to describe the dynamics in various time series. To address this problem, we propose a novel model-based time series clustering method with mixtures of linear Gaussian state space models, which have high flexibility. The proposed method uses a new expectation-maximization algorithm for the mixture model to estimate the model parameters, and determines the number of clusters using the Bayesian information criterion. Experiments on a simulated dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in clustering, parameter estimation, and model selection. The method is applied to real datasets commonly used to evaluate time series clustering methods. Results showed that the proposed method produces clustering results that are as accurate or more accurate than those obtained using previous methods.
Monocular camera sensors are vital to intelligent vehicle operation and automated driving assistance and are also heavily employed in traffic control infrastructure. Calibrating the monocular camera, though, is time-consuming and often requires significant manual intervention. In this work, we present an extrinsic camera calibration approach that automatizes the parameter estimation by utilizing semantic segmentation information from images and point clouds. Our approach relies on a coarse initial measurement of the camera pose and builds on lidar sensors mounted on a vehicle with high-precision localization to capture a point cloud of the camera environment. Afterward, a mapping between the camera and world coordinate spaces is obtained by performing a lidar-to-camera registration of the semantically segmented sensor data. We evaluate our method on simulated and real-world data to demonstrate low error measurements in the calibration results. Our approach is suitable for infrastructure sensors as well as vehicle sensors, while it does not require motion of the camera platform.
Purpose: For quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM), the lack of ground-truth in clinical settings makes it challenging to determine suitable parameters for the dipole inversion. We propose a probabilistic Bayesian approach for QSM with built-in parameter estimation, and incorporate the nonlinear formulation of the dipole inversion to achieve a robust recovery of the susceptibility maps. Theory: From a Bayesian perspective, the image wavelet coefficients are approximately sparse and modelled by the Laplace distribution. The measurement noise is modelled by a Gaussian-mixture distribution with two components, where the second component is used to model the noise outliers. Through probabilistic inference, the susceptibility map and distribution parameters can be jointly recovered using approximate message passing (AMP). Methods: We compare our proposed AMP with built-in parameter estimation (AMP-PE) to the state-of-the-art L1-QSM, FANSI and MEDI approaches on the simulated and in vivo datasets, and perform experiments to explore the optimal settings of AMP-PE. Reproducible code is available at https://github.com/EmoryCN2L/QSM_AMP_PE Results: On the simulated Sim2Snr1 dataset, AMP-PE achieved the lowest NRMSE, DFCM and the highest SSIM, while MEDI achieved the lowest HFEN. On the in vivo datasets, AMP-PE is robust and successfully recovers the susceptibility maps using the estimated parameters, whereas L1-QSM, FANSI and MEDI typically require additional visual fine-tuning to select or double-check working parameters. Conclusion: AMP-PE provides automatic and adaptive parameter estimation for QSM and avoids the subjectivity from the visual fine-tuning step, making it an excellent choice for the clinical setting.
Trajectory prediction has been widely pursued in many fields, and many model-based and model-free methods have been explored. The former include rule-based, geometric or optimization-based models, and the latter are mainly comprised of deep learning approaches. In this paper, we propose a new method combining both methodologies based on a new Neural Differential Equation model. Our new model (Neural Social Physics or NSP) is a deep neural network within which we use an explicit physics model with learnable parameters. The explicit physics model serves as a strong inductive bias in modeling pedestrian behaviors, while the rest of the network provides a strong data-fitting capability in terms of system parameter estimation and dynamics stochasticity modeling. We compare NSP with 15 recent deep learning methods on 6 datasets and improve the state-of-the-art performance by 5.56%-70%. Besides, we show that NSP has better generalizability in predicting plausible trajectories in drastically different scenarios where the density is 2-5 times as high as the testing data. Finally, we show that the physics model in NSP can provide plausible explanations for pedestrian behaviors, as opposed to black-box deep learning. Code is available: https://github.com/realcrane/Human-Trajectory-Prediction-via-Neural-Social-Physics.
Understanding factors affecting social interactions among animals is important for applied animal behavior research. Thus, there is a need to elicit statistical models to analyze data collected from pairwise behavioral interactions. In this study, we propose treating social interaction data as dyadic observations and propose a statistical model for their analysis. We performed posterior predictive checks of the model through different validation strategies: stratified 5-fold random cross-validation, block-by-social-group cross-validation, and block-by-focal-animals validation. The proposed model was applied to a pig behavior dataset collected from 797 growing pigs freshly remixed into 59 social groups that resulted in 10,032 records of directional dyadic interactions. The response variable was the duration in seconds that each animal spent delivering attacks on another group mate. Generalized linear mixed models were fitted. Fixed effects included sex, individual weight, prior nursery mate experience, and prior littermate experience of the two pigs in the dyad. Random effects included aggression giver, aggression receiver, dyad, and social group. A Bayesian framework was utilized for parameter estimation and posterior predictive model checking. Prior nursery mate experience was the only significant fixed effect. In addition, a weak but significant correlation between the random giver effect and the random receiver effect was obtained when analyzing the attacking duration. The predictive performance of the model varied depending on the validation strategy, with substantially lower performance from the block-by-social-group strategy than other validation strategies. Collectively, this paper demonstrates a statistical model to analyze interactive animal behaviors, particularly dyadic interactions.
Online imitation learning is the problem of how best to mimic expert demonstrations, given access to the environment or an accurate simulator. Prior work has shown that in the infinite sample regime, exact moment matching achieves value equivalence to the expert policy. However, in the finite sample regime, even if one has no optimization error, empirical variance can lead to a performance gap that scales with $H^2 / N$ for behavioral cloning and $H / \sqrt{N}$ for online moment matching, where $H$ is the horizon and $N$ is the size of the expert dataset. We introduce the technique of replay estimation to reduce this empirical variance: by repeatedly executing cached expert actions in a stochastic simulator, we compute a smoother expert visitation distribution estimate to match. In the presence of general function approximation, we prove a meta theorem reducing the performance gap of our approach to the parameter estimation error for offline classification (i.e. learning the expert policy). In the tabular setting or with linear function approximation, our meta theorem shows that the performance gap incurred by our approach achieves the optimal $\widetilde{O} \left( \min({H^{3/2}} / {N}, {H} / {\sqrt{N}} \right)$ dependency, under significantly weaker assumptions compared to prior work. We implement multiple instantiations of our approach on several continuous control tasks and find that we are able to significantly improve policy performance across a variety of dataset sizes.
Addressing the challenge of scaling-up epidemiological inference to complex and heterogeneous models, we introduce Poisson Approximate Likelihood (PAL) methods. In contrast to the popular ODE approach to compartmental modelling, in which a large population limit is used to motivate a deterministic model, PALs are derived from approximate filtering equations for finite-population, stochastic compartmental models, and the large population limit drives consistency of maximum PAL estimators. Our theoretical results appear to be the first likelihood-based parameter estimation consistency results which apply to a broad class of partially observed stochastic compartmental models and address the large population limit. PALs are simple to implement, involving only elementary arithmetic operations and no tuning parameters, and fast to evaluate, requiring no simulation from the model and having computational cost independent of population size. Through examples we demonstrate how PALs can be used to: fit an age-structured model of influenza, taking advantage of automatic differentiation in Stan; compare over-dispersion mechanisms in a model of rotavirus by embedding PALs within sequential Monte Carlo; and evaluate the role of unit-specific parameters in a meta-population model of measles.
Weakly Supervised Object Localization (WSOL) aims to localize objects with image-level supervision. Existing works mainly rely on Class Activation Mapping (CAM) derived from a classification model. However, CAM-based methods usually focus on the most discriminative parts of an object (i.e., incomplete localization problem). In this paper, we empirically prove that this problem is associated with the mixup of the activation values between less discriminative foreground regions and the background. To address it, we propose Class RE-Activation Mapping (CREAM), a novel clustering-based approach to boost the activation values of the integral object regions. To this end, we introduce class-specific foreground and background context embeddings as cluster centroids. A CAM-guided momentum preservation strategy is developed to learn the context embeddings during training. At the inference stage, the re-activation mapping is formulated as a parameter estimation problem under Gaussian Mixture Model, which can be solved by deriving an unsupervised Expectation-Maximization based soft-clustering algorithm. By simply integrating CREAM into various WSOL approaches, our method significantly improves their performance. CREAM achieves the state-of-the-art performance on CUB, ILSVRC and OpenImages benchmark datasets. Code will be available at https://github.com/Jazzcharles/CREAM.