Forecasting is challenging since uncertainty resulted from exogenous factors exists. This work investigates the rank position forecasting problem in car racing, which predicts the rank positions at the future laps for cars. Among the many factors that bring changes to the rank positions, pit stops are critical but irregular and rare. We found existing methods, including statistical models, machine learning regression models, and state-of-the-art deep forecasting model based on encoder-decoder architecture, all have limitations in the forecasting. By elaborative analysis of pit stops events, we propose a deep model, RankNet, with the cause effects decomposition that modeling the rank position sequence and pit stop events separately. It also incorporates probabilistic forecasting to model the uncertainty inside each sub-model. Through extensive experiments, RankNet demonstrates a strong performance improvement over the baselines, e.g., MAE improves more than 10% consistently, and is also more stable when adapting to unseen new data. Details of model optimization, performance profiling are presented. It is promising to provide useful forecasting tools for the car racing analysis and shine a light on solutions to similar challenging issues in general forecasting problems.
Large datasets have become commonplace in NLP research. However, the increased emphasis on data quantity has made it challenging to assess the quality of data. We introduce Data Maps---a model-based tool to characterize and diagnose datasets. We leverage a largely ignored source of information: the behavior of the model on individual instances during training (training dynamics) for building data maps. This yields two intuitive measures for each example---the model's confidence in the true class, and the variability of this confidence across epochs---obtained in a single run of training. Experiments across four datasets show that these model-dependent measures reveal three distinct regions in the data map, each with pronounced characteristics. First, our data maps show the presence of "ambiguous" regions with respect to the model, which contribute the most towards out-of-distribution generalization. Second, the most populous regions in the data are "easy to learn" for the model, and play an important role in model optimization. Finally, data maps uncover a region with instances that the model finds "hard to learn"; these often correspond to labeling errors. Our results indicate that a shift in focus from quantity to quality of data could lead to robust models and improved out-of-distribution generalization.
We present a novel active learning algorithm, termed as iterative surrogate model optimization (ISMO), for robust and efficient numerical approximation of PDE constrained optimization problems. This algorithm is based on deep neural networks and its key feature is the iterative selection of training data through a feedback loop between deep neural networks and any underlying standard optimization algorithm. Under suitable hypotheses, we show that the resulting optimizers converge exponentially fast (and with exponentially decaying variance), with respect to increasing number of training samples. Numerical examples for optimal control, parameter identification and shape optimization problems for PDEs are provided to validate the proposed theory and to illustrate that ISMO significantly outperforms a standard deep neural network based surrogate optimization algorithm.
Federated learning (FL) is a decentralized and privacy-preserving machine learning technique in which a group of clients collaborate with a server to learn a global model without sharing clients' data. One challenge associated with FL is statistical diversity among clients, which restricts the global model from delivering good performance on each client's task. To address this, we propose an algorithm for personalized FL (pFedMe) using Moreau envelopes as clients' regularized loss functions, which help decouple personalized model optimization from the global model learning in a bi-level problem stylized for personalized FL. Theoretically, we show that pFedMe's convergence rate is state-of-the-art: achieving quadratic speedup for strongly convex and sublinear speedup of order 2/3 for smooth nonconvex objectives. Experimentally, we verify that pFedMe excels at empirical performance compared with the vanilla FedAvg and Per-FedAvg, a meta-learning based personalized FL algorithm.
Machine learning models are increasingly being used in important decision-making software such as approving bank loans, recommending criminal sentencing, hiring employees, and so on. It is important to ensure the fairness of these models so that no discrimination is made based on protected attribute (e.g., race, sex, age) while decision making. Algorithms have been developed to measure unfairness and mitigate them to a certain extent. In this paper, we have focused on the empirical evaluation of fairness and mitigations on real-world machine learning models. We have created a benchmark of 40 top-rated models from Kaggle used for 5 different tasks, and then using a comprehensive set of fairness metrics, evaluated their fairness. Then, we have applied 7 mitigation techniques on these models and analyzed the fairness, mitigation results, and impacts on performance. We have found that some model optimization techniques result in inducing unfairness in the models. On the other hand, although there are some fairness control mechanisms in machine learning libraries, they are not documented. The mitigation algorithm also exhibit common patterns such as mitigation in the post-processing is often costly (in terms of performance) and mitigation in the pre-processing stage is preferred in most cases. We have also presented different trade-off choices of fairness mitigation decisions. Our study suggests future research directions to reduce the gap between theoretical fairness aware algorithms and the software engineering methods to leverage them in practice.
We propose a Dynamic Scale Training paradigm (abbreviated as DST) to mitigate scale variation challenge in object detection. Previous strategies like image pyramid, multi-scale training, and their variants are aiming at preparing scale-invariant data for model optimization. However, the preparation procedure is unaware of the following optimization process that restricts their capability in handling the scale variation. Instead, in our paradigm, we use feedback information from the optimization process to dynamically guide the data preparation. The proposed method is surprisingly simple yet obtains significant gains (2%+ Average Precision on MS COCO dataset), outperforming previous methods. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed DST method towards scale variation handling. It could also generalize to various backbones, benchmarks, and other challenging downstream tasks like instance segmentation. It does not introduce inference overhead and could serve as a free lunch for general detection configurations. Besides, it also facilitates efficient training due to fast convergence. Code and models are available at github.com/yukang2017/Stitcher.
The Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti Money Laundering (AML) are worldwide practices to online customer identification based on personal identification documents, similarity and liveness checking, and proof of address. To answer the basic regulation question: are you whom you say you are? The customer needs to upload valid identification documents (ID). This task imposes some computational challenges since these documents are diverse, may present different and complex backgrounds, some occlusion, partial rotation, poor quality, or damage. Advanced text and document segmentation algorithms were used to process the ID images. In this context, we investigated a method based on U-Net to detect the document edges and text regions in ID images. Besides the promising results on image segmentation, the U-Net based approach is computationally expensive for a real application, since the image segmentation is a customer device task. We propose a model optimization based on Octave Convolutions to qualify the method to situations where storage, processing, and time resources are limited, such as in mobile and robotic applications. We conducted the evaluation experiments in two new datasets CDPhotoDataset and DTDDataset, which are composed of real ID images of Brazilian documents. Our results showed that the proposed models are efficient to document segmentation tasks and portable.
ML4Chem is an open-source machine learning library for chemistry and materials science. It provides an extendable platform to develop and deploy machine learning models and pipelines and is targeted to the non-expert and expert users. ML4Chem follows user-experience design and offers the needed tools to go from data preparation to inference. Here we introduce its atomistic module for the implementation, deployment, and reproducibility of atom-centered models. This module is composed of six core building blocks: data, featurization, models, model optimization, inference, and visualization. We present their functionality and easiness of use with demonstrations utilizing neural networks and kernel ridge regression algorithms.
Recent works on crowd counting mainly leverage CNNs to count by regressing density maps, and have achieved great progress. In the density map, each person is represented by a Gaussian blob, and the final count is obtained from the integration of the whole map. However, it is difficult to accurately predict the density map on dense regions. A major issue is that the density map on dense regions usually accumulates density values from a number of nearby Gaussian blobs, yielding different large density values on a small set of pixels. This makes the density map present variant patterns with significant pattern shifts and brings a long-tailed distribution of pixel-wise density values. We propose a simple and effective Learning to Scale (L2S) module, which automatically scales dense regions into reasonable closeness levels (reflecting image-plane distance between neighboring people). L2S directly normalizes the closeness in different patches such that it dynamically separates the overlapped blobs, decomposes the accumulated values in the ground-truth density map, and thus alleviates the pattern shifts and long-tailed distribution of density values. This helps the model to better learn the density map. We also explore the effectiveness of L2S in localizing people by finding the local minima of the quantized distance (w.r.t. person location map). To the best of our knowledge, such a localization method is also novel in localization-based crowd counting. We further introduce a customized dynamic cross-entropy loss, significantly improving the localization-based model optimization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed framework termed AutoScale improves upon some state-of-the-art methods in both regression and localization benchmarks on three crowded datasets and achieves very competitive performance on two sparse datasets.
The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the non-parametric Bayesian HP has been proposed. However, the inference of such models suffers from unscalability or slow convergence. In this paper, we aim to solve both problems. Specifically, first, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian HP in which the triggering kernel is modeled as a squared sparse Gaussian process. Then, we propose a novel variational inference schema for model optimization. We employ the branching structure of the HP so that maximization of evidence lower bound (ELBO) is tractable by the expectation-maximization algorithm. We propose a tighter ELBO which improves the fitting performance. Further, we accelerate the novel variational inference schema to linear time complexity by leveraging the stationarity of the triggering kernel. Different from prior acceleration methods, ours enjoys higher efficiency. Finally, we exploit synthetic data and two large social media datasets to evaluate our method. We show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art non-parametric frequentist and Bayesian methods. We validate the efficiency of our accelerated variational inference schema and practical utility of our tighter ELBO for model selection. We observe that the tighter ELBO exceeds the common one in model selection.
Visual relationship reasoning is a crucial yet challenging task for understanding rich interactions across visual concepts. For example, a relationship 'man, open, door' involves a complex relation 'open' between concrete entities 'man, door'. While much of the existing work has studied this problem in the context of still images, understanding visual relationships in videos has received limited attention. Due to their temporal nature, videos enable us to model and reason about a more comprehensive set of visual relationships, such as those requiring multiple (temporal) observations (e.g., 'man, lift up, box' vs. 'man, put down, box'), as well as relationships that are often correlated through time (e.g., 'woman, pay, money' followed by 'woman, buy, coffee'). In this paper, we construct a Conditional Random Field on a fully-connected spatio-temporal graph that exploits the statistical dependency between relational entities spatially and temporally. We introduce a novel gated energy function parametrization that learns adaptive relations conditioned on visual observations. Our model optimization is computationally efficient, and its space computation complexity is significantly amortized through our proposed parameterization. Experimental results on benchmark video datasets (ImageNet Video and Charades) demonstrate state-of-the-art performance across three standard relationship reasoning tasks: Detection, Tagging, and Recognition.
High throughput and low latency inference of deep neural networks are critical for the deployment of deep learning applications. This paper presents the efficient inference techniques of IntelCaffe, the first Intel optimized deep learning framework that supports efficient 8-bit low precision inference and model optimization techniques of convolutional neural networks on Intel Xeon Scalable Processors. The 8-bit optimized model is automatically generated with a calibration process from FP32 model without the need of fine-tuning or retraining. We show that the inference throughput and latency with ResNet-50, Inception-v3 and SSD are improved by 1.38X-2.9X and 1.35X-3X respectively with neglectable accuracy loss from IntelCaffe FP32 baseline and by 56X-75X and 26X-37X from BVLC Caffe. All these techniques have been open-sourced on IntelCaffe GitHub1, and the artifact is provided to reproduce the result on Amazon AWS Cloud.