Common workflows in machine learning and statistics rely on the ability to partition the information in a data set into independent portions. Recent work has shown that this may be possible even when conventional sample splitting is not (e.g., when the number of samples $n=1$, or when observations are not independent and identically distributed). However, the approaches that are currently available to decompose multivariate Gaussian data require knowledge of the covariance matrix. In many important problems (such as in spatial or longitudinal data analysis, and graphical modeling), the covariance matrix may be unknown and even of primary interest. Thus, in this work we develop new approaches to decompose Gaussians with unknown covariance. First, we present a general algorithm that encompasses all previous decomposition approaches for Gaussian data as special cases, and can further handle the case of an unknown covariance. It yields a new and more flexible alternative to sample splitting when $n>1$. When $n=1$, we prove that it is impossible to partition the information in a multivariate Gaussian into independent portions without knowing the covariance matrix. Thus, we use the general algorithm to decompose a single multivariate Gaussian with unknown covariance into dependent parts with tractable conditional distributions, and demonstrate their use for inference and validation. The proposed decomposition strategy extends naturally to Gaussian processes. In simulation and on electroencephalography data, we apply these decompositions to the tasks of model selection and post-selection inference in settings where alternative strategies are unavailable.
The task of determining whether two texts are paraphrases has long been a challenge in NLP. However, the prevailing notion of paraphrase is often quite simplistic, offering only a limited view of the vast spectrum of paraphrase phenomena. Indeed, we find that evaluating models in a paraphrase dataset can leave uncertainty about their true semantic understanding. To alleviate this, we create PARAPHRASUS, a benchmark designed for multi-dimensional assessment, benchmarking and selection of paraphrase detection models. We find that paraphrase detection models under our fine-grained evaluation lens exhibit trade-offs that cannot be captured through a single classification dataset. Furthermore, PARAPHRASUS allows prompt calibration for different use cases, tailoring LLM models to specific strictness levels. PARAPHRASUS includes 3 challenges spanning over 10 datasets, including 8 repurposed and 2 newly annotated; we release it along with a benchmarking library at https://github.com/impresso/paraphrasus
Recent works for time-series forecasting more and more leverage the high predictive power of Deep Learning models. With this increase in model complexity, however, comes a lack in understanding of the underlying model decision process, which is problematic for high-stakes application scenarios. At the same time, simple, interpretable forecasting methods such as ARIMA still perform very well, sometimes on-par, with Deep Learning approaches. We argue that simple models are good enough most of the time, and that forecasting performance could be improved by choosing a Deep Learning method only for few, important predictions, increasing the overall interpretability of the forecasting process. In this context, we propose a novel online model selection framework which learns to identify these predictions. An extensive empirical study on various real-world datasets shows that our selection methodology performs comparable to state-of-the-art online model selections methods in most cases while being significantly more interpretable. We find that almost always choosing a simple autoregressive linear model for forecasting results in competitive performance, suggesting that the need for opaque black-box models in time-series forecasting might be smaller than recent works would suggest.
Visual Question-Answering (VQA) has become key to user experience, particularly after improved generalization capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLMs). But evaluating VLMs for an application requirement using a standardized framework in practical settings is still challenging. This paper aims to solve that using an end-to-end framework. We present VQA360 - a novel dataset derived from established VQA benchmarks, annotated with task types, application domains, and knowledge types, for a comprehensive evaluation. We also introduce GoEval, a multimodal evaluation metric developed using GPT-4o, achieving a correlation factor of 56.71% with human judgments. Our experiments with state-of-the-art VLMs reveal that no single model excels universally, thus, making a right choice a key design decision. Proprietary models such as Gemini-1.5-Pro and GPT-4o-mini generally outperform others, but open-source models like InternVL-2-8B and CogVLM-2-Llama-3-19B also demonstrate competitive strengths, while providing additional advantages. Our framework can also be extended to other tasks.
Ensemble learning is a meta-learning approach that combines the predictions of multiple learners, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. Nevertheless, ensembling models like Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) result in high memory and computing overhead, preventing their deployment in embedded systems. These devices are usually equipped with small batteries that provide power supply and might include energy-harvesting modules that extract energy from the environment. In this work, we propose E-QUARTIC, a novel Energy Efficient Edge Ensembling framework to build ensembles of CNNs targeting Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based embedded systems. Our design outperforms single-instance CNN baselines and state-of-the-art edge AI solutions, improving accuracy and adapting to varying energy conditions while maintaining similar memory requirements. Then, we leverage the multi-CNN structure of the designed ensemble to implement an energy-aware model selection policy in energy-harvesting AI systems. We show that our solution outperforms the state-of-the-art by reducing system failure rate by up to 40% while ensuring higher average output qualities. Ultimately, we show that the proposed design enables concurrent on-device training and high-quality inference execution at the edge, limiting the performance and energy overheads to less than 0.04%.
Characterising the intelligence of biological organisms is challenging. This work considers intelligent algorithms developed evolutionarily within neural systems. Mathematical analyses unveil a natural equivalence between canonical neural networks, variational Bayesian inference under a class of partially observable Markov decision processes, and differentiable Turing machines, by showing that they minimise the shared Helmholtz energy. Consequently, canonical neural networks can biologically plausibly equip Turing machines and conduct variational Bayesian inferences of external Turing machines in the environment. Applying Helmholtz energy minimisation at the species level facilitates deriving active Bayesian model selection inherent in natural selection, resulting in the emergence of adaptive algorithms. In particular, canonical neural networks with two mental actions can separately memorise transition mappings of multiple external Turing machines to form a universal machine. These propositions were corroborated by numerical simulations of algorithm implementation and neural network evolution. These notions offer a universal characterisation of biological intelligence emerging from evolution in terms of Bayesian model selection and belief updating.
The rapid evolution of cyber threats necessitates innovative solutions for detecting and analyzing malicious activity. Honeypots, which are decoy systems designed to lure and interact with attackers, have emerged as a critical component in cybersecurity. In this paper, we present a novel approach to creating realistic and interactive honeypot systems using Large Language Models (LLMs). By fine-tuning a pre-trained open-source language model on a diverse dataset of attacker-generated commands and responses, we developed a honeypot capable of sophisticated engagement with attackers. Our methodology involved several key steps: data collection and processing, prompt engineering, model selection, and supervised fine-tuning to optimize the model's performance. Evaluation through similarity metrics and live deployment demonstrated that our approach effectively generates accurate and informative responses. The results highlight the potential of LLMs to revolutionize honeypot technology, providing cybersecurity professionals with a powerful tool to detect and analyze malicious activity, thereby enhancing overall security infrastructure.
The rapid evolution of mobile networks from 5G to 6G has necessitated the development of autonomous network management systems, such as Zero-Touch Networks (ZTNs). However, the increased complexity and automation of these networks have also escalated cybersecurity risks. Existing Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) leveraging traditional Machine Learning (ML) techniques have shown effectiveness in mitigating these risks, but they often require extensive manual effort and expert knowledge. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an Automated Machine Learning (AutoML)-based autonomous IDS framework towards achieving autonomous cybersecurity for next-generation networks. To achieve autonomous intrusion detection, the proposed AutoML framework automates all critical procedures of the data analytics pipeline, including data pre-processing, feature engineering, model selection, hyperparameter tuning, and model ensemble. Specifically, it utilizes a Tabular Variational Auto-Encoder (TVAE) method for automated data balancing, tree-based ML models for automated feature selection and base model learning, Bayesian Optimization (BO) for hyperparameter optimization, and a novel Optimized Confidence-based Stacking Ensemble (OCSE) method for automated model ensemble. The proposed AutoML-based IDS was evaluated on two public benchmark network security datasets, CICIDS2017 and 5G-NIDD, and demonstrated improved performance compared to state-of-the-art cybersecurity methods. This research marks a significant step towards fully autonomous cybersecurity in next-generation networks, potentially revolutionizing network security applications.
Machine Learning (ML) has gained popularity in actuarial research and insurance industrial applications. However, the performance of most ML tasks heavily depends on data preprocessing, model selection, and hyperparameter optimization, which are considered to be intensive in terms of domain knowledge, experience, and manual labor. Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) aims to automatically complete the full life-cycle of ML tasks and provides state-of-the-art ML models without human intervention or supervision. This paper introduces an AutoML workflow that allows users without domain knowledge or prior experience to achieve robust and effortless ML deployment by writing only a few lines of code. This proposed AutoML is specifically tailored for the insurance application, with features like the balancing step in data preprocessing, ensemble pipelines, and customized loss functions. These features are designed to address the unique challenges of the insurance domain, including the imbalanced nature of common insurance datasets. The full code and documentation are available on the GitHub repository. (https://github.com/PanyiDong/InsurAutoML)
Biclustering is an unsupervised machine-learning approach aiming to cluster rows and columns simultaneously in a data matrix. Several biclustering algorithms have been proposed for handling numeric datasets. However, real-world data mining problems often involve heterogeneous datasets with mixed attributes. To address this challenge, we introduce a biclustering approach called HBIC, capable of discovering meaningful biclusters in complex heterogeneous data, including numeric, binary, and categorical data. The approach comprises two stages: bicluster generation and bicluster model selection. In the initial stage, several candidate biclusters are generated iteratively by adding and removing rows and columns based on the frequency of values in the original matrix. In the second stage, we introduce two approaches for selecting the most suitable biclusters by considering their size and homogeneity. Through a series of experiments, we investigated the suitability of our approach on a synthetic benchmark and in a biomedical application involving clinical data of systemic sclerosis patients. The evaluation comparing our method to existing approaches demonstrates its ability to discover high-quality biclusters from heterogeneous data. Our biclustering approach is a starting point for heterogeneous bicluster discovery, leading to a better understanding of complex underlying data structures.
In this work, we address the question of how to enhance signal-agnostic searches by leveraging multiple testing strategies. Specifically, we consider hypothesis tests relying on machine learning, where model selection can introduce a bias towards specific families of new physics signals. We show that it is beneficial to combine different tests, characterised by distinct choices of hyperparameters, and that performances comparable to the best available test are generally achieved while providing a more uniform response to various types of anomalies. Focusing on the New Physics Learning Machine, a methodology to perform a signal-agnostic likelihood-ratio test, we explore a number of approaches to multiple testing, such as combining p-values and aggregating test statistics.
Solving Algebra Problems with Geometry Diagrams (APGDs) is still a challenging problem because diagram processing is not studied as intensively as language processing. To work against this challenge, this paper proposes a hologram reasoning scheme and develops a high-performance method for solving APGDs by using this scheme. To reach this goal, it first defines a hologram, being a kind of graph, and proposes a hologram generator to convert a given APGD into a hologram, which represents the entire information of APGD and the relations for solving the problem can be acquired from it by a uniform way. Then HGR, a hologram reasoning method employs a pool of prepared graph models to derive algebraic equations, which is consistent with the geometric theorems. This method is able to be updated by adding new graph models into the pool. Lastly, it employs deep reinforcement learning to enhance the efficiency of model selection from the pool. The entire HGR not only ensures high solution accuracy with fewer reasoning steps but also significantly enhances the interpretability of the solution process by providing descriptions of all reasoning steps. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of HGR in improving both accuracy and interpretability in solving APGDs.
Data-driven discovery of partial differential equations (PDEs) has emerged as a promising approach for deriving governing physics when domain knowledge about observed data is limited. Despite recent progress, the identification of governing equations and their parametric dependencies using conventional information criteria remains challenging in noisy situations, as the criteria tend to select overly complex PDEs. In this paper, we introduce an extension of the uncertainty-penalized Bayesian information criterion (UBIC), which is adapted to solve parametric PDE discovery problems efficiently without requiring computationally expensive PDE simulations. This extended UBIC uses quantified PDE uncertainty over different temporal or spatial points to prevent overfitting in model selection. The UBIC is computed with data transformation based on power spectral densities to discover the governing parametric PDE that truly captures qualitative features in frequency space with a few significant terms and their parametric dependencies (i.e., the varying PDE coefficients), evaluated with confidence intervals. Numerical experiments on canonical PDEs demonstrate that our extended UBIC can identify the true number of terms and their varying coefficients accurately, even in the presence of noise. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/Pongpisit-Thanasutives/parametric-discovery}.
The performance of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms is sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters, with the learning rate being particularly influential. RL algorithms fail to reach convergence or demand an extensive number of samples when the learning rate is not optimally set. In this work, we show that model selection can help to improve the failure modes of RL that are due to suboptimal choices of learning rate. We present a model selection framework for Learning Rate-Free Reinforcement Learning that employs model selection methods to select the optimal learning rate on the fly. This approach of adaptive learning rate tuning neither depends on the underlying RL algorithm nor the optimizer and solely uses the reward feedback to select the learning rate; hence, the framework can input any RL algorithm and produce a learning rate-free version of it. We conduct experiments for policy optimization methods and evaluate various model selection strategies within our framework. Our results indicate that data-driven model selection algorithms are better alternatives to standard bandit algorithms when the optimal choice of hyperparameter is time-dependent and non-stationary.
Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) significantly simplifies the deployment of machine learning models by automating tasks from data preprocessing to model selection to ensembling. AutoML systems for tabular data often employ post hoc ensembling, where multiple models are combined to improve predictive accuracy. This typically results in longer inference times, a major limitation in practical deployments. Addressing this, we introduce a hardware-aware ensemble selection approach that integrates inference time into post hoc ensembling. By leveraging an existing framework for ensemble selection with quality diversity optimization, our method evaluates ensemble candidates for their predictive accuracy and hardware efficiency. This dual focus allows for a balanced consideration of accuracy and operational efficiency. Thus, our approach enables practitioners to choose from a Pareto front of accurate and efficient ensembles. Our evaluation using 83 classification datasets shows that our approach sustains competitive accuracy and can significantly improve ensembles' operational efficiency. The results of this study provide a foundation for extending these principles to additional hardware constraints, setting the stage for the development of more resource-efficient AutoML systems.
In several Machine Learning (ML) clustering and dimensionality reduction approaches, such as non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), RESCAL, and K-Means clustering, users must select a hyper-parameter k to define the number of clusters or components that yield an ideal separation of samples or clean clusters. This selection, while difficult, is crucial to avoid overfitting or underfitting the data. Several ML applications use scoring methods (e.g., Silhouette and Davies Boulding scores) to evaluate the cluster pattern stability for a specific k. The score is calculated for different trials over a range of k, and the ideal k is heuristically selected as the value before the model starts overfitting, indicated by a drop or increase in the score resembling an elbow curve plot. While the grid-search method can be used to accurately find a good k value, visiting a range of k can become time-consuming and computationally resource-intensive. In this paper, we introduce the Binary Bleed method based on binary search, which significantly reduces the k search space for these grid-search ML algorithms by truncating the target k values from the search space using a heuristic with thresholding over the scores. Binary Bleed is designed to work with single-node serial, single-node multi-processing, and distributed computing resources. In our experiments, we demonstrate the reduced search space gain over a naive sequential search of the ideal k and the accuracy of the Binary Bleed in identifying the correct k for NMFk, K-Means pyDNMFk, and pyDRESCALk with Silhouette and Davies Boulding scores. We make our implementation of Binary Bleed for the NMF algorithm available on GitHub.
The rapid evolution of multimedia and computer vision technologies requires adaptive visual model deployment strategies to effectively handle diverse tasks and varying environments. This work introduces AxiomVision, a novel framework that can guarantee accuracy by leveraging edge computing to dynamically select the most efficient visual models for video analytics under diverse scenarios. Utilizing a tiered edge-cloud architecture, AxiomVision enables the deployment of a broad spectrum of visual models, from lightweight to complex DNNs, that can be tailored to specific scenarios while considering camera source impacts. In addition, AxiomVision provides three core innovations: (1) a dynamic visual model selection mechanism utilizing continual online learning, (2) an efficient online method that efficiently takes into account the influence of the camera's perspective, and (3) a topology-driven grouping approach that accelerates the model selection process. With rigorous theoretical guarantees, these advancements provide a scalable and effective solution for visual tasks inherent to multimedia systems, such as object detection, classification, and counting. Empirically, AxiomVision achieves a 25.7\% improvement in accuracy.
In the field of Image-Text Retrieval (ITR), recent advancements have leveraged large-scale Vision-Language Pretraining (VLP) for Fine-Grained (FG) instance-level retrieval, achieving high accuracy at the cost of increased computational complexity. For Coarse-Grained (CG) category-level retrieval, prominent approaches employ Cross-Modal Hashing (CMH) to prioritise efficiency, albeit at the cost of retrieval performance. Due to differences in methodologies, FG and CG models are rarely compared directly within evaluations in the literature, resulting in a lack of empirical data quantifying the retrieval performance-efficiency tradeoffs between the two. This paper addresses this gap by introducing the \texttt{FiCo-ITR} library, which standardises evaluation methodologies for both FG and CG models, facilitating direct comparisons. We conduct empirical evaluations of representative models from both subfields, analysing precision, recall, and computational complexity across varying data scales. Our findings offer new insights into the performance-efficiency trade-offs between recent representative FG and CG models, highlighting their respective strengths and limitations. These findings provide the foundation necessary to make more informed decisions regarding model selection for specific retrieval tasks and highlight avenues for future research into hybrid systems that leverage the strengths of both FG and CG approaches.
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in medicine. However, their utility in non-generative clinical prediction, often presumed inferior to specialized models, remains under-evaluated, leading to ongoing debate within the field and potential for misuse, misunderstanding, or over-reliance due to a lack of systematic benchmarking. Our ClinicRealm study addresses this by benchmarking 9 GPT-based LLMs, 5 BERT-based models, and 7 traditional methods on unstructured clinical notes and structured Electronic Health Records (EHR). Key findings reveal a significant shift: for clinical note predictions, leading LLMs (e.g., DeepSeek R1/V3, GPT o3-mini-high) in zero-shot settings now decisively outperform finetuned BERT models. On structured EHRs, while specialized models excel with ample data, advanced LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, DeepSeek R1/V3) show potent zero-shot capabilities, often surpassing conventional models in data-scarce settings. Notably, leading open-source LLMs can match or exceed proprietary counterparts. These results establish modern LLMs as powerful non-generative clinical prediction tools, particularly with unstructured text and offering data-efficient structured data options, thus necessitating a re-evaluation of model selection strategies. This research should serve as an important insight for medical informaticists, AI developers, and clinical researchers, potentially prompting a reassessment of current assumptions and inspiring new approaches to LLM application in predictive healthcare.
This paper introduces Patched Round-Trip Correctness (Patched RTC), a novel evaluation technique for Large Language Models (LLMs) applied to diverse software development tasks, particularly focusing on "outer loop" activities such as bug fixing, code review, and documentation updates. Patched RTC extends the original Round-Trip Correctness method to work with any LLM and downstream task, offering a self-evaluating framework that measures consistency and robustness of model responses without human intervention. The study demonstrates a correlation between Patched RTC scores and task-specific accuracy metrics, presenting it as an alternative to the LLM-as-Judge paradigm for open-domain task evaluation. We implement Patched RTC in an open-source framework called patchwork, allowing for transparent evaluation during inference across various patchflows. Experiments comparing GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 models across different software development tasks reveal that Patched RTC effectively distinguishes model performance and task difficulty. The paper also explores the impact of consistency prompts on improving model accuracy, suggesting that Patched RTC can guide prompt refinement and model selection for complex software development workflows.