We investigate state-dependent effects of fiscal multipliers and allow for endogenous sample splitting to determine whether the US economy is in a slack state. When the endogenized slack state is estimated as the period of the unemployment rate higher than about 12 percent, the estimated cumulative multipliers are significantly larger during slack periods than non-slack periods and are above unity. We also examine the possibility of time-varying regimes of slackness and find that our empirical results are robust under a more flexible framework. Our estimation results point out the importance of the heterogenous effects of fiscal policy and shed light on the prospect of fiscal policy in response to economic shocks from the current COVID-19 pandemic.
Graph data is ubiquitous in academia and industry, from social networks to bioinformatics. The pervasiveness of graphs today has raised the demand for algorithms that can answer various questions: Which products would a user like to purchase given her order list? Which users are buying fake followers to increase their public reputation? Myriads of new graph mining algorithms are proposed every year to answer such questions - each with a distinct problem formulation, computational time, and memory footprint. This lack of unity makes it difficult for a practitioner to compare different algorithms and pick the most suitable one for a specific application. These challenges - even more severe for non-experts - create a gap in which state-of-the-art techniques developed in academic settings fail to be optimally deployed in real-world applications. To bridge this gap, we propose AUTOGM, an automated system for graph mining algorithm development. We first define a unified framework UNIFIEDGM that integrates various message-passing based graph algorithms, ranging from conventional algorithms like PageRank to graph neural networks. Then UNIFIEDGM defines a search space in which five parameters are required to determine a graph algorithm. Under this search space, AUTOGM explicitly optimizes for the optimal parameter set of UNIFIEDGM using Bayesian Optimization. AUTOGM defines a novel budget-aware objective function for the optimization to incorporate a practical issue - finding the best speed-accuracy trade-off under a computation budget - into the graph algorithm generation problem. Experiments on real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AUTOGM generates novel graph mining algorithms with the best speed/accuracy trade-off compared to existing models with heuristic parameters.
This paper is devoted to adaptive signal denoising in the context of Graph Signal Processing (GSP) using Spectral Graph Wavelet Transform (SGWT). This issue is addressed \emph{via} a data-driven thresholding process in the transformed domain by optimizing the parameters in the sense of the Mean Square Error (MSE) using the Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE). The SGWT considered is built upon a partition of unity making the transform semi-orthogonal so that the optimization can be performed in the transformed domain. However, since the SGWT is over-complete, the divergence term in the SURE needs to be computed in the context of correlated noise. Two thresholding strategies called coordinatewise and block thresholding process are investigated. For each of them, the SURE is derived for a whole family of elementary thresholding functions among which the soft threshold and the James-Stein threshold. This multi-scales analysis shows better performance than the most recent methods from the literature. That is illustrated numerically for a series of signals on different graphs.
State-of-the-art quadrotor simulators have a rigid and highly-specialized structure: either are they really fast, physically accurate, or photo-realistic. In this work, we propose a novel quadrotor simulator: Flightmare. Flightmare is composed of two main components: a configurable rendering engine built on Unity and a flexible physics engine for dynamics simulation. Those two components are totally decoupled and can run independently of each other. This makes our simulator extremely fast: rendering achieves speeds of up to 230 Hz, while physics simulation of up to 200,000 Hz on a laptop. In addition, Flightmare comes with several desirable features: (i) a large multi-modal sensor suite, including an interface to extract the 3D point-cloud of the scene; (ii) an API for reinforcement learning which can simulate hundreds of quadrotors in parallel; and (iii) integration with a virtual-reality headset for interaction with the simulated environment. We demonstrate the flexibility of Flightmare by using it for two different robotic tasks: quadrotor control using deep reinforcement learning and collision-free path planning in a complex 3D environment.
Over the course of the last several years there was a strong interest in application of modern optimal control techniques to the field of character animation. This interest was fueled by introduction of efficient learning based algorithms for policy optimization, growth in computation power, and game engine improvements. It was shown that it is possible to generate natural looking control of a character by using two ingredients. First, the simulated agent must adhere to a motion capture dataset. And second, the character aims to track the control input from the user. The paper aims at closing the gap between the researchers and users by introducing an open source implementation of physics based character control in Unity framework that has a low entry barrier and a steep learning curve.
Neural Network (NN) classifiers can assign extreme probabilities to samples that have not appeared during training (out-of-distribution samples) resulting in erroneous and unreliable predictions. One of the causes for this unwanted behaviour lies in the use of the standard softmax operator which pushes the posterior probabilities to be either zero or unity hence failing to model uncertainty. The statistical derivation of the softmax operator relies on the assumption that the distributions of the latent variables for a given class are Gaussian with known variance. However, it is possible to use different assumptions in the same derivation and attain from other families of distributions as well. This allows derivation of novel operators with more favourable properties. Here, a novel operator is proposed that is derived using $t$-distributions which are capable of providing a better description of uncertainty. It is shown that classifiers that adopt this novel operator can be more robust to out of distribution samples, often outperforming NNs that use the standard softmax operator. These enhancements can be reached with minimal changes to the NN architecture.
The technological and scientific challenges involved in the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) are currently of primary interest for many automobile companies and research labs. However, human-controlled vehicles are likely to remain on the roads for several decades to come and may share with AVs the traffic environments of the future. In such mixed environments, AVs should deploy human-like driving policies and negotiation skills to enable smooth traffic flow. To generate automated human-like driving policies, we introduce a model-free, deep reinforcement learning approach to imitate an experienced human driver's behavior. We study a static obstacle avoidance task on a two-lane highway road in simulation (Unity). Our control algorithm receives a stochastic feedback signal from two sources: a model-driven part, encoding simple driving rules, such as lane-keeping and speed control, and a stochastic, data-driven part, incorporating human expert knowledge from driving data. To assess the similarity between machine and human driving, we model distributions of track position and speed as Gaussian processes. We demonstrate that our approach leads to human-like driving policies.
Deep learning applications require global optimization of non-convex objective functions, which have multiple local minima. The same problem is often found in physical simulations and may be resolved by the methods of Langevin dynamics with Simulated Annealing, which is a well-established approach for minimization of many-particle potentials. This analogy provides useful insights for non-convex stochastic optimization in machine learning. Here we find that integration of the discretized Langevin equation gives a coordinate updating rule equivalent to the famous Momentum optimization algorithm. As a main result, we show that a gradual decrease of the momentum coefficient from the initial value close to unity until zero is equivalent to application of Simulated Annealing or slow cooling, in physical terms. Making use of this novel approach, we propose CoolMomentum -- a new stochastic optimization method. Applying Coolmomentum to optimization of Resnet-20 on Cifar-10 dataset and Efficientnet-B0 on Imagenet, we demonstrate that it is able to achieve high accuracies.
We present a unified representation for actionable spatial perception: 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs. Scene graphs are directed graphs where nodes represent entities in the scene (e.g. objects, walls, rooms), and edges represent relations (e.g. inclusion, adjacency) among nodes. Dynamic scene graphs (DSGs) extend this notion to represent dynamic scenes with moving agents (e.g. humans, robots), and to include actionable information that supports planning and decision-making (e.g. spatio-temporal relations, topology at different levels of abstraction). Our second contribution is to provide the first fully automatic Spatial PerceptIon eNgine(SPIN) to build a DSG from visual-inertial data. We integrate state-of-the-art techniques for object and human detection and pose estimation, and we describe how to robustly infer object, robot, and human nodes in crowded scenes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that reconciles visual-inertial SLAM and dense human mesh tracking. Moreover, we provide algorithms to obtain hierarchical representations of indoor environments (e.g. places, structures, rooms) and their relations. Our third contribution is to demonstrate the proposed spatial perception engine in a photo-realistic Unity-based simulator, where we assess its robustness and expressiveness. Finally, we discuss the implications of our proposal on modern robotics applications. 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs can have a profound impact on planning and decision-making, human-robot interaction, long-term autonomy, and scene prediction. A video abstract is available at https://youtu.be/SWbofjhyPzI
This paper uses a graphic engine to simulate a large amount of training data with free annotations. Between synthetic and real data, there is a two-level domain gap, i.e., content level and appearance level. While the latter has been widely studied, we focus on reducing the content gap in attributes like illumination and viewpoint. To reduce the problem complexity, we choose a smaller and more controllable application, vehicle re-identification (re-ID). We introduce a large-scale synthetic dataset VehicleX. Created in Unity, it contains 1,362 vehicles of various 3D models with fully editable attributes. We propose an attribute descent approach to let VehicleX approximate the attributes in real-world datasets. Specifically, we manipulate each attribute in VehicleX, aiming to minimize the discrepancy between VehicleX and real data in terms of the Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID). This attribute descent algorithm allows content domain adaptation (DA) orthogonal to existing appearance DA methods. We mix the optimized VehicleX data with real-world vehicle re-ID datasets, and observe consistent improvement. With the augmented datasets, we report competitive accuracy. We make the dataset, engine and our codes available at https://github.com/yorkeyao/VehicleX.
This paper attempts to answer a central question in unsupervised learning: what does it mean to "make sense" of a sensory sequence? In our formalization, making sense involves constructing a symbolic causal theory that both explains the sensory sequence and also satisfies a set of unity conditions. The unity conditions insist that the constituents of the causal theory -- objects, properties, and laws -- must be integrated into a coherent whole. On our account, making sense of sensory input is a type of program synthesis, but it is unsupervised program synthesis. Our second contribution is a computer implementation, the Apperception Engine, that was designed to satisfy the above requirements. Our system is able to produce interpretable human-readable causal theories from very small amounts of data, because of the strong inductive bias provided by the unity conditions. A causal theory produced by our system is able to predict future sensor readings, as well as retrodict earlier readings, and impute (fill in the blanks of) missing sensory readings, in any combination. We tested the engine in a diverse variety of domains, including cellular automata, rhythms and simple nursery tunes, multi-modal binding problems, occlusion tasks, and sequence induction intelligence tests. In each domain, we test our engine's ability to predict future sensor values, retrodict earlier sensor values, and impute missing sensory data. The engine performs well in all these domains, significantly out-performing neural net baselines. We note in particular that in the sequence induction intelligence tests, our system achieved human-level performance. This is notable because our system is not a bespoke system designed specifically to solve intelligence tests, but a general-purpose system that was designed to make sense of any sensory sequence.
Efficient exploration is a long-standing problem in sensorimotor learning. Major advances have been demonstrated in noise-free, non-stochastic domains such as video games and simulation. However, most of these formulations either get stuck in environments with stochastic dynamics or are too inefficient to be scalable to real robotics setups. In this paper, we propose a formulation for exploration inspired by the work in active learning literature. Specifically, we train an ensemble of dynamics models and incentivize the agent to explore such that the disagreement of those ensembles is maximized. This allows the agent to learn skills by exploring in a self-supervised manner without any external reward. Notably, we further leverage the disagreement objective to optimize the agent's policy in a differentiable manner, without using reinforcement learning, which results in a sample-efficient exploration. We demonstrate the efficacy of this formulation across a variety of benchmark environments including stochastic-Atari, Mujoco and Unity. Finally, we implement our differentiable exploration on a real robot which learns to interact with objects completely from scratch. Project videos and code are at https://pathak22.github.io/exploration-by-disagreement/
Learning agents that are not only capable of taking tests, but also innovating is becoming a hot topic in AI. One of the most promising paths towards this vision is multi-agent learning, where agents act as the environment for each other, and improving each agent means proposing new problems for others. However, existing evaluation platforms are either not compatible with multi-agent settings, or limited to a specific game. That is, there is not yet a general evaluation platform for research on multi-agent intelligence. To this end, we introduce Arena, a general evaluation platform for multi-agent intelligence with 35 games of diverse logics and representations. Furthermore, multi-agent intelligence is still at the stage where many problems remain unexplored. Therefore, we provide a building toolkit for researchers to easily invent and build novel multi-agent problems from the provided game set based on a GUI-configurable social tree and five basic multi-agent reward schemes. Finally, we provide Python implementations of five state-of-the-art deep multi-agent reinforcement learning baselines. Along with the baseline implementations, we release a set of 100 best agents/teams that we can train with different training schemes for each game, as the base for evaluating agents with population performance. As such, the research community can perform comparisons under a stable and uniform standard. All the implementations and accompanied tutorials have been open-sourced for the community at https://sites.google.com/view/arena-unity/.
In many areas, practitioners need to analyze large datasets that challenge conventional single-machine computing. To scale up data analysis, distributed and parallel computing approaches are increasingly needed. Here we study a fundamental and highly important problem in this area: How to do ridge regression in a distributed computing environment? Ridge regression is an extremely popular method for supervised learning, and has several optimality properties, thus it is important to study. We study one-shot methods that construct weighted combinations of ridge regression estimators computed on each machine. By analyzing the mean squared error in a high dimensional random-effects model where each predictor has a small effect, we discover several new phenomena. 1. Infinite-worker limit: The distributed estimator works well for very large numbers of machines, a phenomenon we call "infinite-worker limit". 2. Optimal weights: The optimal weights for combining local estimators sum to more than unity, due to the downward bias of ridge. Thus, all averaging methods are suboptimal. We also propose a new Weighted ONe-shot DistributEd Ridge regression (WONDER) algorithm. We test WONDER in simulation studies and using the Million Song Dataset as an example. There it can save at least 100x in computation time, while nearly preserving test accuracy.
Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning in the paradigm of locomotion using continuous control have raised the interest of game makers for the potential of digital actors using active ragdoll. Currently, the available options to develop these ideas are either researchers' limited codebase or proprietary closed systems. We present Marathon Environments, a suite of open source, continuous control benchmarks implemented on the Unity game engine, using the Unity ML- Agents Toolkit. We demonstrate through these benchmarks that continuous control research is transferable to a commercial game engine. Furthermore, we exhibit the robustness of these environments by reproducing advanced continuous control research, such as learning to walk, run and backflip from motion capture data; learning to navigate complex terrains; and by implementing a video game input control system. We show further robustness by training with alternative algorithms found in OpenAI.Baselines. Finally, we share strategies for significantly reducing the training time.
Over the recent years, there has been an explosion of studies on autonomous vehicles. Many collected large amount of data from human drivers. However, compared to the tedious data collection approach, building a virtual simulation of traffic makes the autonomous vehicle research more flexible, time-saving, and scalable. Our work features a 3D simulation that takes in real time position information parsed from street cameras. The simulation can easily switch between a global bird view of the traffic and a local perspective of a car. It can also filter out certain objects in its customized camera, creating various channels for objects of different categories. This provides alternative supervised or unsupervised ways to train deep neural networks. Another advantage of the 3D simulation is its conformation to physical laws. Its naturalness to accelerate and collide prepares the system for potential deep reinforcement learning needs.
Recent advances in artificial intelligence have been driven by the presence of increasingly realistic and complex simulated environments. However, many of the existing environments provide either unrealistic visuals, inaccurate physics, low task complexity, restricted agent perspective, or a limited capacity for interaction among artificial agents. Furthermore, many platforms lack the ability to flexibly configure the simulation, making the simulated environment a black-box from the perspective of the learning system. In this work, we propose a novel taxonomy of existing simulation platforms and discuss the highest level class of general platforms which enable the development of learning environments that are rich in visual, physical, task, and social complexity. We argue that modern game engines are uniquely suited to act as general platforms and as a case study examine the Unity engine and open source Unity ML-Agents Toolkit. We then survey the research enabled by Unity and the Unity ML-Agents Toolkit, discussing the kinds of research a flexible, interactive and easily configurable general platform can facilitate.
Motion plans are often randomly generated for minor game NPCs. Repetitive or regular movements, however, require non-trivial programming effort and/or integration with a pathing system. We here describe an example-based approach to path generation that requires little or no additional programming effort. Our work modifies the Wave Function Collapse (WFC) algorithm, adapting it to produce pathing plans similar to an input sketch. We show how simple sketch modifications control path characteristics, and demonstrate feasibility through a usable Unity implementation.
Although simple individually, artificial neurons provide state-of-the-art performance when interconnected in deep networks. Unknown to many, there exists an arguably even simpler and more versatile learning mechanism, namely, the Tsetlin Automaton. Merely by means of a single integer as memory, it learns the optimal action in stochastic environments through increment and decrement operations. In this paper, we introduce the Tsetlin Machine, which solves complex pattern recognition problems with easy-to-interpret propositional formulas, composed by a collective of Tsetlin Automata. To eliminate the longstanding problem of vanishing signal-to-noise ratio, the Tsetlin Machine orchestrates the automata using a novel game. Our theoretical analysis establishes that the Nash equilibria of the game align with the propositional formulas that provide optimal pattern recognition accuracy. This translates to learning without local optima, only global ones. We argue that the Tsetlin Machine finds the propositional formula that provides optimal accuracy, with probability arbitrarily close to unity. In five benchmarks, the Tsetlin Machine provides competitive accuracy compared with SVMs, Decision Trees, Random Forests, Naive Bayes Classifier, Logistic Regression, and Neural Networks. The Tsetlin Machine further has an inherent computational advantage since both inputs, patterns, and outputs are expressed as bits, while recognition and learning rely on bit manipulation. The combination of accuracy, interpretability, and computational simplicity makes the Tsetlin Machine a promising tool for a wide range of domains. Being the first of its kind, we believe the Tsetlin Machine will kick-start new paths of research, with a potentially significant impact on the AI field and the applications of AI.