A wide range of systems exhibit high dimensional incomplete data. Accurate estimation of the missing data is often desired, and is crucial for many downstream analyses. Many state-of-the-art recovery methods involve supervised learning using datasets containing full observations. In contrast, we focus on unsupervised estimation of missing image data, where no full observations are available - a common situation in practice. Unsupervised imputation methods for images often employ a simple linear subspace to capture correlations between data dimensions, omitting more complex relationships. In this work, we introduce a general probabilistic model that describes sparse high dimensional imaging data as being generated by a deep non-linear embedding. We derive a learning algorithm using a variational approximation based on convolutional neural networks and discuss its relationship to linear imputation models, the variational auto encoder, and deep image priors. We introduce sparsity-aware network building blocks that explicitly model observed and missing data. We analyze proposed sparsity-aware network building blocks, evaluate our method on public domain imaging datasets, and conclude by showing that our method enables imputation in an important real-world problem involving medical images. The code is freely available as part of the \verb|neuron| library at http://github.com/adalca/neuron.
Variational inference transforms posterior inference into parametric optimization thereby enabling the use of latent variable models where otherwise impractical. However, variational inference can be finicky when different variational parameters control variables that are strongly correlated under the model. Traditional natural gradients based on the variational approximation fail to correct for correlations when the approximation is not the true posterior. To address this, we construct a new natural gradient called the Variational Predictive Natural Gradient (VPNG). Unlike traditional natural gradients for variational inference, this natural gradient accounts for the relationship between model parameters and variational parameters. We demonstrate the insight with a simple example as well as the empirical value on a classification task, a deep generative model of images, and probabilistic matrix factorization for recommendation.
Human perception is structured around objects which form the basis for our higher-level cognition and impressive systematic generalization abilities. Yet most work on representation learning focuses on feature learning without even considering multiple objects, or treats segmentation as an (often supervised) preprocessing step. Instead, we argue for the importance of learning to segment and represent objects jointly. We demonstrate that, starting from the simple assumption that a scene is composed of multiple entities, it is possible to learn to segment images into interpretable objects with disentangled representations. Our method learns -- without supervision -- to inpaint occluded parts, and extrapolates to scenes with more objects and to unseen objects with novel feature combinations. We also show that, due to the use of iterative variational inference, our system is able to learn multi-modal posteriors for ambiguous inputs and extends naturally to sequences.
While Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have drawn increasing attention, their posterior inference remains challenging, due to the high-dimensional and over-parameterized nature. To address this issue, several highly flexible and scalable variational inference procedures based on the idea of particle optimization have been proposed. These methods directly optimize a set of particles to approximate the target posterior. However, their application to BNNs often yields sub-optimal performance, as such methods have a particular failure mode on over-parameterized models. In this paper, we propose to solve this issue by performing particle optimization directly in the space of regression functions. We demonstrate through extensive experiments that our method successfully overcomes this issue, and outperforms strong baselines in a variety of tasks including prediction, defense against adversarial examples, and reinforcement learning.
Defining action spaces for conversational agents and optimizing their decision-making process with reinforcement learning is an enduring challenge. Common practice has been to use handcrafted dialog acts, or the output vocabulary, e.g. in neural encoder decoders, as the action spaces. Both have their own limitations. This paper proposes a novel latent action framework that treats the action spaces of an end-to-end dialog agent as latent variables and develops unsupervised methods in order to induce its own action space from the data. Comprehensive experiments are conducted examining both continuous and discrete action types and two different optimization methods based on stochastic variational inference. Results show that the proposed latent actions achieve superior empirical performance improvement over previous word-level policy gradient methods on both DealOrNoDeal and MultiWoz dialogs. Our detailed analysis also provides insights about various latent variable approaches for policy learning and can serve as a foundation for developing better latent actions in future research.
The automated construction of coarse-grained models represents a pivotal component in computer simulation of physical systems and is a key enabler in various analysis and design tasks related to uncertainty quantification. Pertinent methods are severely inhibited by the high-dimension of the parametric input and the limited number of training input/output pairs that can be generated when computationally demanding forward models are considered. Such cases are frequently encountered in the modeling of random heterogeneous media where the scale of the microstructure necessitates the use of high-dimensional random vectors and very fine discretizations of the governing equations. The present paper proposes a probabilistic Machine Learning framework that is capable of operating in the presence of Small Data by exploiting aspects of the physical structure of the problem as well as contextual knowledge. As a result, it can perform comparably well under extrapolative conditions. It unifies the tasks of dimensionality and model-order reduction through an encoder-decoder scheme that simultaneously identifies a sparse set of salient lower-dimensional microstructural features and calibrates an inexpensive, coarse-grained model which is predictive of the output. Information loss is accounted for and quantified in the form of probabilistic predictive estimates. The learning engine is based on Stochastic Variational Inference. We demonstrate how the variational objectives can be used not only to train the coarse-grained model, but also to suggest refinements that lead to improved predictions.
Aspect-based Opinion Summary (AOS), consisting of aspect discovery and sentiment classification steps, has recently been emerging as one of the most crucial data mining tasks in e-commerce systems. Along this direction, the LDA-based model is considered as a notably suitable approach, since this model offers both topic modeling and sentiment classification. However, unlike traditional topic modeling, in the context of aspect discovery it is often required some initial seed words, whose prior knowledge is not easy to be incorporated into LDA models. Moreover, LDA approaches rely on sampling methods, which need to load the whole corpus into memory, making them hardly scalable. In this research, we study an alternative approach for AOS problem, based on Autoencoding Variational Inference (AVI). Firstly, we introduce the Autoencoding Variational Inference for Aspect Discovery (AVIAD) model, which extends the previous work of Autoencoding Variational Inference for Topic Models (AVITM) to embed prior knowledge of seed words. This work includes enhancement of the previous AVI architecture and also modification of the loss function. Ultimately, we present the Autoencoding Variational Inference for Joint Sentiment/Topic (AVIJST) model. In this model, we substantially extend the AVI model to support the JST model, which performs topic modeling for corresponding sentiment. The experimental results show that our proposed models enjoy higher topic coherent, faster convergence time and better accuracy on sentiment classification, as compared to their LDA-based counterparts.
Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate inference strategies. In such cases, taking the eventual decision-making task into account while performing the inference allows for calibrating the posterior approximation to maximize the utility. We present an automatic pipeline that co-opts continuous utilities into variational inference algorithms to account for decision-making. We provide practical strategies for approximating and maximizing the gain, and empirically demonstrate consistent improvement when calibrating approximations for specific utilities.
It is known that the Langevin dynamics used in MCMC is the gradient flow of the KL divergence on the Wasserstein space, which helps convergence analysis and inspires recent particle-based variational inference methods (ParVIs). But no more MCMC dynamics is understood in this way. In this work, by developing novel concepts, we propose a theoretical framework that recognizes a general MCMC dynamics as the fiber-gradient Hamiltonian flow on the Wasserstein space of a fiber-Riemannian Poisson manifold. The "conservation + convergence" structure of the flow gives a clear picture on the behavior of general MCMC dynamics. The framework also enables ParVI simulation of MCMC dynamics, which enriches the ParVI family with more efficient dynamics, and also adapts ParVI advantages to MCMCs. We develop two ParVI methods for a particular MCMC dynamics and demonstrate the benefits in experiments.
Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures and convolutional or local connections between layers. Equipped with tensorized truncated variational inference, our LGMs can be efficiently trained via backpropagation on mainstream deep learning frameworks such as PyTorch. To deal with continuous valued inputs, we use a simple yet effective soft-clamping strategy for efficient inference. Through extensive experiments on image classification over MNIST and FashionMNIST datasets, we demonstrate that LGMs are capable of achieving competitive results comparable to NNs of similar architectures, while preserving transparent probabilistic modeling.
Variational autoencoder is a powerful deep generative model with variational inference. The practice of modeling latent variables in the VAE's original formulation as normal distributions with a diagonal covariance matrix limits the flexibility to match the true posterior distribution. We propose a new transformation, dyadic transformation (DT), that can model a multivariate normal distribution. DT is a single-stage transformation with low computational requirements. We demonstrate empirically on MNIST dataset that DT enhances the posterior flexibility and attains competitive results compared to other VAE enhancements.
Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accelerated deep learning framework. To accommodate complex or model-specific algorithmic behavior, Pyro leverages Poutine, a library of composable building blocks for modifying the behavior of probabilistic programs.
Modeling buildings' heat dynamics is a complex process which depends on various factors including weather, building thermal capacity, insulation preservation, and residents' behavior. Gray-box models offer a causal inference of those dynamics expressed in few parameters specific to built environments. These parameters can provide compelling insights into the characteristics of building artifacts and have various applications such as forecasting HVAC usage, indoor temperature control monitoring of built environments, etc. In this paper, we present a systematic study of modeling buildings' thermal characteristics and thus derive the parameters of built conditions with a Bayesian approach. We build a Bayesian state-space model that can adapt and incorporate buildings' thermal equations and propose a generalized solution that can easily adapt prior knowledge regarding the parameters. We show that a faster approximate approach using variational inference for parameter estimation can provide similar parameters as that of a more time-consuming Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. We perform extensive evaluations on two datasets to understand the generative process and show that the Bayesian approach is more interpretable. We further study the effects of prior selection for the model parameters and transfer learning, where we learn parameters from one season and use them to fit the model in the other. We perform extensive evaluations on controlled and real data traces to enumerate buildings' parameter within a 95% credible interval.
We present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a statistical inference framework that enables the end-to-end training of surrogate models on paired input-output observations that may be stochastic in nature, originate from different information sources of variable fidelity, or be corrupted by complex noise processes. The resulting surrogates can accommodate high-dimensional inputs and outputs and are able to return predictions with quantified uncertainty. The effectiveness our approach is demonstrated through a series of canonical studies, including the regression of noisy data, multi-fidelity modeling of stochastic processes, and uncertainty propagation in high-dimensional dynamical systems.
Artificial Neural Networks are connectionist systems that perform a given task by learning on examples without having prior knowledge about the task. This is done by finding an optimal point estimate for the weights in every node. Generally, the network using point estimates as weights perform well with large datasets, but they fail to express uncertainty in regions with little or no data, leading to overconfident decisions. In this paper, Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network (BayesCNN) using Variational Inference is proposed, that introduces probability distribution over the weights. Furthermore, the proposed BayesCNN architecture is applied to tasks like Image Classification, Image Super-Resolution and Generative Adversarial Networks. The results are compared to point-estimates based architectures on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets for Image CLassification task, on BSD300 dataset for Image Super Resolution task and on CIFAR10 dataset again for Generative Adversarial Network task. BayesCNN is based on Bayes by Backprop which derives a variational approximation to the true posterior. We, therefore, introduce the idea of applying two convolutional operations, one for the mean and one for the variance. Our proposed method not only achieves performances equivalent to frequentist inference in identical architectures but also incorporate a measurement for uncertainties and regularisation. It further eliminates the use of dropout in the model. Moreover, we predict how certain the model prediction is based on the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties and empirically show how the uncertainty can decrease, allowing the decisions made by the network to become more deterministic as the training accuracy increases. Finally, we propose ways to prune the Bayesian architecture and to make it more computational and time effective.
Crowdsourcing has become widely used in supervised scenarios where training sets are scarce and difficult to obtain. Most crowdsourcing models in the literature assume labelers can provide answers to full questions. In classification contexts, full questions require a labeler to discern among all possible classes. Unfortunately, discernment is not always easy in realistic scenarios. Labelers may not be experts in differentiating all classes. In this work, we provide a full probabilistic model for a shorter type of queries. Our shorter queries only require "yes" or "no" responses. Our model estimates a joint posterior distribution of matrices related to labelers' confusions and the posterior probability of the class of every object. We developed an approximate inference approach, using Monte Carlo Sampling and Black Box Variational Inference, which provides the derivation of the necessary gradients. We built two realistic crowdsourcing scenarios to test our model. The first scenario queries for irregular astronomical time-series. The second scenario relies on the image classification of animals. We achieved results that are comparable with those of full query crowdsourcing. Furthermore, we show that modeling labelers' failures plays an important role in estimating true classes. Finally, we provide the community with two real datasets obtained from our crowdsourcing experiments. All our code is publicly available.
In this paper, we describe a Bayesian deep neural network (DNN) for predicting FreeSurfer segmentations of structural MRI volumes, in minutes rather than hours. The network was trained and evaluated on a large dataset (n = 11,480), obtained by combining data from more than a hundred different sites, and also evaluated on another completely held-out dataset (n = 418). The network was trained using a novel spike-and-slab dropout-based variational inference approach. We show that, on these datasets, the proposed Bayesian DNN outperforms previously proposed methods, in terms of the similarity between the segmentation predictions and the FreeSurfer labels, and the usefulness of the estimate uncertainty of these predictions. In particular, we demonstrated that the prediction uncertainty of this network at each voxel is a good indicator of whether the network has made an error and that the uncertainty across the whole brain can predict the manual quality control ratings of a scan. The proposed Bayesian DNN method should be applicable to any new network architecture for addressing the segmentation problem.
Several algorithms for solving constraint satisfaction problems are based on survey propagation, a variational inference scheme used to obtain approximate marginal probability estimates for variable assignments. These marginals correspond to how frequently each variable is set to true among satisfying assignments, and are used to inform branching decisions during search; however, marginal estimates obtained via survey propagation are approximate and can be self-contradictory. We introduce a more general branching strategy based on streamlining constraints, which sidestep hard assignments to variables. We show that streamlined solvers consistently outperform decimation-based solvers on random k-SAT instances for several problem sizes, shrinking the gap between empirical performance and theoretical limits of satisfiability by 16.3% on average for k=3,4,5,6.
We introduce the variational filtering EM algorithm, a simple, general-purpose method for performing variational inference in dynamical latent variable models using information from only past and present variables, i.e. filtering. The algorithm is derived from the variational objective in the filtering setting and consists of an optimization procedure at each time step. By performing each inference optimization procedure with an iterative amortized inference model, we obtain a computationally efficient implementation of the algorithm, which we call amortized variational filtering. We present experiments demonstrating that this general-purpose method improves performance across several deep dynamical latent variable models.
Planning has been very successful for control tasks with known environment dynamics. To leverage planning in unknown environments, the agent needs to learn the dynamics from interactions with the world. However, learning dynamics models that are accurate enough for planning has been a long-standing challenge, especially in image-based domains. We propose the Deep Planning Network (PlaNet), a purely model-based agent that learns the environment dynamics from images and chooses actions through fast online planning in latent space. To achieve high performance, the dynamics model must accurately predict the rewards ahead for multiple time steps. We approach this using a latent dynamics model with both deterministic and stochastic transition components. Moreover, we propose a multi-step variational inference objective that we name latent overshooting. Using only pixel observations, our agent solves continuous control tasks with contact dynamics, partial observability, and sparse rewards, which exceed the difficulty of tasks that were previously solved by planning with learned models. PlaNet uses substantially fewer episodes and reaches final performance close to and sometimes higher than strong model-free algorithms.