It is a common practice in the machine learning community to assume that the observed data are noise-free in the input attributes. Nevertheless, scenarios with input noise are common in real problems, as measurements are never perfectly accurate. If this input noise is not taken into account, a supervised machine learning method is expected to perform sub-optimally. In this paper, we focus on multi-class classification problems and use Gaussian processes (GPs) as the underlying classifier. Motivated by a data set coming from the astrophysics domain, we hypothesize that the observed data may contain noise in the inputs. Therefore, we devise several multi-class GP classifiers that can account for input noise. Such classifiers can be efficiently trained using variational inference to approximate the posterior distribution of the latent variables of the model. Moreover, in some situations, the amount of noise can be known before-hand. If this is the case, it can be readily introduced in the proposed methods. This prior information is expected to lead to better performance results. We have evaluated the proposed methods by carrying out several experiments, involving synthetic and real data. These include several data sets from the UCI repository, the MNIST data set and a data set coming from astrophysics. The results obtained show that, although the classification error is similar across methods, the predictive distribution of the proposed methods is better, in terms of the test log-likelihood, than the predictive distribution of a classifier based on GPs that ignores input noise.
Current variational inference methods for hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models can neither characterize the correlation structure among latent variables due to the mean-field setting, nor infer the true posterior dimension because of the universal truncation. To overcome these limitations, we propose the conditional and adaptively truncated variational inference method (CATVI) by maximizing the nonparametric evidence lower bound and integrating Monte Carlo into the variational inference framework. CATVI enjoys several advantages over traditional methods, including a smaller divergence between variational and true posteriors, reduced risk of underfitting or overfitting, and improved prediction accuracy. Empirical studies on three large datasets reveal that CATVI applied in Bayesian nonparametric topic models substantially outperforms competing models, providing lower perplexity and clearer topic-words clustering.
A variety of lifted inference algorithms, which exploit model symmetry to reduce computational cost, have been proposed to render inference tractable in probabilistic relational models. Most existing lifted inference algorithms operate only over discrete domains or continuous domains with restricted potential functions, e.g., Gaussian. We investigate two approximate lifted variational approaches that are applicable to hybrid domains and expressive enough to capture multi-modality. We demonstrate that the proposed variational methods are both scalable and can take advantage of approximate model symmetries, even in the presence of a large amount of continuous evidence. We demonstrate that our approach compares favorably against existing message-passing based approaches in a variety of settings. Finally, we present a sufficient condition for the Bethe approximation to yield a non-trivial estimate over the marginal polytope.
The adjoint sensitivity method scalably computes gradients of solutions to ordinary differential equations. We generalize this method to stochastic differential equations, allowing time-efficient and constant-memory computation of gradients with high-order adaptive solvers. Specifically, we derive a stochastic differential equation whose solution is the gradient, a memory-efficient algorithm for caching noise, and conditions under which numerical solutions converge. In addition, we combine our method with gradient-based stochastic variational inference for latent stochastic differential equations. We use our method to fit stochastic dynamics defined by neural networks, achieving competitive performance on a 50-dimensional motion capture dataset.
Autonomous agents can learn by imitating teacher demonstrations of the intended behavior. Hierarchical control policies are ubiquitously useful for such learning, having the potential to break down structured tasks into simpler sub-tasks, thereby improving data efficiency and generalization. In this paper, we propose a variational inference method for imitation learning of a control policy represented by parametrized hierarchical procedures (PHP), a program-like structure in which procedures can invoke sub-procedures to perform sub-tasks. Our method discovers the hierarchical structure in a dataset of observation-action traces of teacher demonstrations, by learning an approximate posterior distribution over the latent sequence of procedure calls and terminations. Samples from this learned distribution then guide the training of the hierarchical control policy. We identify and demonstrate a novel benefit of variational inference in the context of hierarchical imitation learning: in decomposing the policy into simpler procedures, inference can leverage acausal information that is unused by other methods. Training PHP with variational inference outperforms LSTM baselines in terms of data efficiency and generalization, requiring less than half as much data to achieve a 24% error rate in executing the bubble sort algorithm, and to achieve no error in executing Karel programs.
Metric-based meta-learning has attracted a lot of attention due to its effectiveness and efficiency in few-shot learning. Recent studies show that metric scaling plays a crucial role in the performance of metric-based meta-learning algorithms. However, there still lacks a principled method for learning the metric scaling parameter automatically. In this paper, we recast metric-based meta-learning from a Bayesian perspective and develop a variational metric scaling framework for learning a proper metric scaling parameter. Firstly, we propose a stochastic variational method to learn a single global scaling parameter. To better fit the embedding space to a given data distribution, we extend our method to learn a dimensional scaling vector to transform the embedding space. Furthermore, to learn task-specific embeddings, we generate task-dependent dimensional scaling vectors with amortized variational inference. Our method is end-to-end without any pre-training and can be used as a simple plug-and-play module for existing metric-based meta-algorithms. Experiments on mini-ImageNet show that our methods can be used to consistently improve the performance of existing metric-based meta-algorithms including prototypical networks and TADAM. The source code can be downloaded from https://github.com/jiaxinchen666/variational-scaling.
We propose a scalable Bayesian preference learning method for jointly predicting the preferences of individuals as well as the consensus of a crowd from pairwise labels. Peoples' opinions often differ greatly, making it difficult to predict their preferences from small amounts of personal data. Individual biases also make it harder to infer the consensus of a crowd when there are few labels per item. We address these challenges by combining matrix factorisation with Gaussian processes, using a Bayesian approach to account for uncertainty arising from noisy and sparse data. Our method exploits input features, such as text embeddings and user metadata, to predict preferences for new items and users that are not in the training set. As previous solutions based on Gaussian processes do not scale to large numbers of users, items or pairwise labels, we propose a stochastic variational inference approach that limits computational and memory costs. Our experiments on a recommendation task show that our method is competitive with previous approaches despite our scalable inference approximation. We demonstrate the method's scalability on a natural language processing task with thousands of users and items, and show improvements over the state of the art on this task. We make our software publicly available for future work.
A recent novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes handles heterogeneous outputs assuming that each output has its own likelihood function. It uses a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model all likelihoods' parameters as latent functions drawn from a Gaussian process with a linear model of coregionalisation covariance. By means of an inducing points framework, the model is able to obtain tractable variational bounds amenable to stochastic variational inference. Nonetheless, the strong conditioning between the variational parameters and the hyper-parameters burdens the adaptive gradient optimisation methods used in the original approach. To overcome this issue we borrow ideas from variational optimisation introducing an exploratory distribution over the hyper-parameters, allowing inference together with the posterior's variational parameters through a fully natural gradient optimisation scheme. Furthermore, in this work we introduce an extension of the heterogeneous multi-output model, where its latent functions are drawn from convolution processes. We show that our optimisation scheme can achieve better local optima solutions with higher test performance rates than adaptive gradient methods, this for both the linear model of coregionalisation and the convolution processes model. We also show how to make the convolutional model scalable by means of stochastic variational inference and how to optimise it through a fully natural gradient scheme. We compare the performance of the different methods over toy and real databases.
In many real-world applications of machine learning, data are distributed across many clients and cannot leave the devices they are stored on. Furthermore, each client's data, computational resources and communication constraints may be very different. This setting is known as federated learning, in which privacy is a key concern. Differential privacy is commonly used to provide mathematical privacy guarantees. This work, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to consider federated, differentially private, Bayesian learning. We build on Partitioned Variational Inference (PVI) which was recently developed to support approximate Bayesian inference in the federated setting. We modify the client-side optimisation of PVI to provide an (${\epsilon}$, ${\delta}$)-DP guarantee. We show that it is possible to learn moderately private logistic regression models in the federated setting that achieve similar performance to models trained non-privately on centralised data.
We address the problem of continual learning in multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models for handling sequential input-output observations. Our approach extends the existing prior-posterior recursion of online Bayesian inference, i.e.\ past posterior discoveries become future prior beliefs, to the infinite functional space setting of GP. For a reason of scalability, we introduce variational inference together with an sparse approximation based on inducing inputs. As a consequence, we obtain tractable continual lower-bounds where two novel Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergences intervene in a natural way. The key technical property of our method is the recursive reconstruction of conditional GP priors conditioned on the variational parameters learned so far. To achieve this goal, we introduce a novel factorization of past variational distributions, where the predictive GP equation propagates the posterior uncertainty forward. We then demonstrate that it is possible to derive GP models over many types of sequential observations, either discrete or continuous and amenable to stochastic optimization. The continual inference approach is also applicable to scenarios where potential multi-channel or heterogeneous observations might appear. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the method is fully scalable, shows a reliable performance and is robust to uncertainty error propagation over a plenty of synthetic and real-world datasets.
Energy-based models (EBMs) are powerful probabilistic models, but suffer from intractable sampling and density evaluation due to the partition function. As a result, inference in EBMs relies on approximate sampling algorithms, leading to a mismatch between the model and inference. Motivated by this, we consider the sampler-induced distribution as the model of interest and maximize the likelihood of this model. This yields a class of energy-inspired models (EIMs) that incorporate learned energy functions while still providing exact samples and tractable log-likelihood lower bounds. We describe and evaluate three instantiations of such models based on truncated rejection sampling, self-normalized importance sampling, and Hamiltonian importance sampling. These models outperform or perform comparably to the recently proposed Learned Accept/Reject Sampling algorithm and provide new insights on ranking Noise Contrastive Estimation and Contrastive Predictive Coding. Moreover, EIMs allow us to generalize a recent connection between multi-sample variational lower bounds and auxiliary variable variational inference. We show how recent variational bounds can be unified with EIMs as the variational family.
Thompson sampling is an efficient algorithm for sequential decision making, which exploits the posterior uncertainty to address the exploration-exploitation dilemma. There has been significant recent interest in integrating Bayesian neural networks into Thompson sampling. Most of these methods rely on global variable uncertainty for exploration. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic modeling framework for Thompson sampling, where local latent variable uncertainty is used to sample the mean reward. Variational inference is used to approximate the posterior of the local variable, and semi-implicit structure is further introduced to enhance its expressiveness. Our experimental results on eight contextual bandit benchmark datasets show that Thompson sampling guided by local uncertainty achieves state-of-the-art performance while having low computational complexity.
A multi-layer deep Gaussian process (DGP) model is a hierarchical composition of GP models with a greater expressive power. Exact DGP inference is intractable, which has motivated the recent development of deterministic and stochastic approximation methods. Unfortunately, the deterministic approximation methods yield a biased posterior belief while the stochastic one is computationally costly. This paper presents an implicit posterior variational inference (IPVI) framework for DGPs that can ideally recover an unbiased posterior belief and still preserve time efficiency. Inspired by generative adversarial networks, our IPVI framework achieves this by casting the DGP inference problem as a two-player game in which a Nash equilibrium, interestingly, coincides with an unbiased posterior belief. This consequently inspires us to devise a best-response dynamics algorithm to search for a Nash equilibrium (i.e., an unbiased posterior belief). Empirical evaluation shows that IPVI outperforms the state-of-the-art approximation methods for DGPs.
This paper tests the hypothesis that modeling a scene in terms of entities and their local interactions, as opposed to modeling the scene globally, provides a significant benefit in generalizing to physical tasks in a combinatorial space the learner has not encountered before. We present object-centric perception, prediction, and planning (OP3), which to the best of our knowledge is the first fully probabilistic entity-centric dynamic latent variable framework for model-based reinforcement learning that acquires entity representations from raw visual observations without supervision and uses them to predict and plan. OP3 enforces entity-abstraction -- symmetric processing of each entity representation with the same locally-scoped function -- which enables it to scale to model different numbers and configurations of objects from those in training. Our approach to solving the key technical challenge of grounding these entity representations to actual objects in the environment is to frame this variable binding problem as an inference problem, and we develop an interactive inference algorithm that uses temporal continuity and interactive feedback to bind information about object properties to the entity variables. On block-stacking tasks, OP3 generalizes to novel block configurations and more objects than observed during training, outperforming an oracle model that assumes access to object supervision and achieving two to three times better accuracy than a state-of-the-art video prediction model that does not exhibit entity abstraction.
Transfer and adaptation to new unknown environmental dynamics is a key challenge for reinforcement learning (RL). An even greater challenge is performing near-optimally in a single attempt at test time, possibly without access to dense rewards, which is not addressed by current methods that require multiple experience rollouts for adaptation. To achieve single episode transfer in a family of environments with related dynamics, we propose a general algorithm that optimizes a probe and an inference model to rapidly estimate underlying latent variables of test dynamics, which are then immediately used as input to a universal control policy. This modular approach enables integration of state-of-the-art algorithms for variational inference or RL. Moreover, our approach does not require access to rewards at test time, allowing it to perform in settings where existing adaptive approaches cannot. In diverse experimental domains with a single episode test constraint, our method significantly outperforms existing adaptive approaches and shows favorable performance against baselines for robust transfer.
Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of post-hoc accuracy measures that are both theoretically justified and computationally efficient. In this paper, we provide rigorous bounds on the error of posterior mean and uncertainty estimates that arise from full-distribution approximations, as in variational inference. Our bounds are widely applicable, as they require only that the approximating and exact posteriors have polynomial moments. Our bounds are also computationally efficient for variational inference because they require only standard values from variational objectives, straightforward analytic calculations, and simple Monte Carlo estimates. We show that our analysis naturally leads to a new and improved workflow for validated variational inference. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our proposed workflow and error bounds on a robust regression problem and on a real-data example with a widely used multilevel hierarchical model.
Variational inference has had great success in scaling approximate Bayesian inference to big data by exploiting mini-batch training. To date, however, this strategy has been most applicable to models of independent data. We propose an extension to state space models of time series data based on a novel generative model for latent temporal states: the neural moving average model. This permits a subsequence to be sampled without drawing from the entire distribution, enabling training iterations to use mini-batches of the time series at low computational cost. We illustrate our method on autoregressive, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo and stochastic volatility models, achieving accurate parameter estimation in a short time.
We propose a deep factorization model for typographic analysis that disentangles content from style. Specifically, a variational inference procedure factors each training glyph into the combination of a character-specific content embedding and a latent font-specific style variable. The underlying generative model combines these factors through an asymmetric transpose convolutional process to generate the image of the glyph itself. When trained on corpora of fonts, our model learns a manifold over font styles that can be used to analyze or reconstruct new, unseen fonts. On the task of reconstructing missing glyphs from an unknown font given only a small number of observations, our model outperforms both a strong nearest neighbors baseline and a state-of-the-art discriminative model from prior work.
Model uncertainty obtained by variational Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo dropout is prone to miscalibration. The uncertainty does not represent the model error well. In this paper, temperature scaling is extended to dropout variational inference to calibrate model uncertainty. Expected uncertainty calibration error (UCE) is presented as a metric to measure miscalibration of uncertainty. The effectiveness of this approach is evaluated on CIFAR-10/100 for recent CNN architectures. Experimental results show, that temperature scaling considerably reduces miscalibration by means of UCE and enables robust rejection of uncertain predictions. The proposed approach can easily be derived from frequentist temperature scaling and yields well-calibrated model uncertainty. It is simple to implement and does not affect the model accuracy.
Grocery recommendation is an important recommendation use-case, which aims to predict which items a user might choose to buy in the future, based on their shopping history. However, existing methods only represent each user and item by single deterministic points in a low-dimensional continuous space. In addition, most of these methods are trained by maximizing the co-occurrence likelihood with a simple Skip-gram-based formulation, which limits the expressive ability of their embeddings and the resulting recommendation performance. In this paper, we propose the Variational Bayesian Context-Aware Representation (VBCAR) model for grocery recommendation, which is a novel variational Bayesian model that learns the user and item latent vectors by leveraging basket context information from past user-item interactions. We train our VBCAR model based on the Bayesian Skip-gram framework coupled with the amortized variational inference so that it can learn more expressive latent representations that integrate both the non-linearity and Bayesian behaviour. Experiments conducted on a large real-world grocery recommendation dataset show that our proposed VBCAR model can significantly outperform existing state-of-the-art grocery recommendation methods.