Solar flares are among the most powerful and dynamic events in the solar system, resulting from the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere. These energetic bursts of electromagnetic radiation can release up to 10^32 erg of energy, impacting space weather and posing risks to technological infrastructure and therefore require accurate forecasting of solar flare occurrences and intensities. This study evaluates the predictive performance of three machine learning algorithms: Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for classifying solar flares into 4 categories (B, C, M, X). Using the dataset of 13 SHARP parameters, the effectiveness of the models was evaluated in binary and multiclass classification tasks. The analysis utilized 8 principal components (PC), capturing 95% of data variance, and 100 PCs, capturing 97.5% of variance. Our approach uniquely combines binary and multiclass classification with different levels of dimensionality reduction, an innovative methodology not previously explored in the context of solar flare prediction. Employing a 10-fold stratified cross-validation and grid search for hyperparameter tuning ensured robust model evaluation. Our findings indicate that Random Forest and XGBoost consistently demonstrate strong performance across all metrics, benefiting significantly from increased dimensionality. The insights of this study enhance future research by optimizing dimensionality reduction techniques and informing model selection for astrophysical tasks. By integrating this newly acquired knowledge into future research, more accurate space weather forecasting systems can be developed, along with a deeper understanding of solar physics.
Common-sense reasoning is a key language model capability because it encapsulates not just specific factual knowledge but rather general language and world understanding. Measuring common-sense reasoning, therefore, is crucial for language models of different sizes and applications. One of the most widely used benchmarks for evaluating such capabilities is HellaSwag; however, in this paper, we show that it has severe construct validity issues. These issues range from basic ungrammaticality and numerous typos to misleading prompts or equally correct options. Furthermore, we show that if models are evaluated only on answer texts, or with "Lorem ipsum dolor..." instead of the question, more than 65% of model predictions remain the same, and this cannot be attributed merely to contamination. Since benchmark scores are an essential part of model selection in both research and commercial applications, these validity issues can have severe consequences. In particular, knowing that taking benchmark scores at face value is ubiquitous, inadequate evaluation leads to ill-informed decisions about models. In this paper, we thoroughly investigate critical validity issues posed by HellaSwag and illustrate them with various evaluations using generative language models of different sizes. We argue that this benchmark does not accurately measure common-sense reasoning and, therefore, should not be used for evaluation in its current state. Based on the results of our study, we propose requirements that should be met by future common-sense reasoning benchmarks. In addition, we release GoldenSwag, a corrected subset of HellaSwag, which, to our belief, facilitates acceptable common-sense reasoning evaluation.
Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) in domains such as manufacturing and energy distribution generate complex time series data crucial for Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). While Deep Learning (DL) methods have demonstrated strong forecasting capabilities, their adoption in industrial CPS remains limited due insufficient robustness. Existing robustness evaluations primarily focus on formal verification or adversarial perturbations, inadequately representing the complexities encountered in real-world CPS scenarios. To address this, we introduce a practical robustness definition grounded in distributional robustness, explicitly tailored to industrial CPS, and propose a systematic framework for robustness evaluation. Our framework simulates realistic disturbances, such as sensor drift, noise and irregular sampling, enabling thorough robustness analyses of forecasting models on real-world CPS datasets. The robustness definition provides a standardized score to quantify and compare model performance across diverse datasets, assisting in informed model selection and architecture design. Through extensive empirical studies evaluating prominent DL architectures (including recurrent, convolutional, attention-based, modular, and structured state-space models) we demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of our approach. We publicly release our robustness benchmark to encourage further research and reproducibility.
Likelihood-free approaches are appealing for performing inference on complex dependence models, either because it is not possible to formulate a likelihood function, or its evaluation is very computationally costly. This is the case for several models available in the multivariate extremes literature, particularly for the most flexible tail models, including those that interpolate between the two key dependence classes of `asymptotic dependence' and `asymptotic independence'. We focus on approaches that leverage neural networks to approximate Bayes estimators. In particular, we explore the properties of neural Bayes estimators for parameter inference for several flexible but computationally expensive models to fit, with a view to aiding their routine implementation. Owing to the absence of likelihood evaluation in the inference procedure, classical information criteria such as the Bayesian information criterion cannot be used to select the most appropriate model. Instead, we propose using neural networks as neural Bayes classifiers for model selection. Our goal is to provide a toolbox for simple, fast fitting and comparison of complex extreme-value dependence models, where the best model is selected for a given data set and its parameters subsequently estimated using neural Bayes estimation. We apply our classifiers and estimators to analyse the pairwise extremal behaviour of changes in horizontal geomagnetic field fluctuations at three different locations.
A novel and intuitive nearest neighbours based clustering algorithm is introduced, in which a cluster is defined in terms of an equilibrium condition which balances its size and cohesiveness. The formulation of the equilibrium condition allows for a quantification of the strength of alignment of each point to a cluster, with these cluster alignment strengths leading naturally to a model selection criterion which renders the proposed approach fully automatable. The algorithm is simple to implement and computationally efficient, and produces clustering solutions of extremely high quality in comparison with relevant benchmarks from the literature. R code to implement the approach is available from https://github.com/DavidHofmeyr/NNEC.
Digital image spoofing has emerged as a significant security threat in biometric authentication systems, particularly those relying on facial recognition. This study evaluates the performance of three vision based models, MobileNetV2, ResNET50, and Vision Transformer, ViT, for spoof detection in image classification, utilizing a dataset of 150,986 images divided into training , 140,002, testing, 10,984, and validation ,39,574, sets. Spoof detection is critical for enhancing the security of image recognition systems, and this research compares the models effectiveness through accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score metrics. Results reveal that MobileNetV2 outperforms other architectures on the test dataset, achieving an accuracy of 91.59%, precision of 91.72%, recall of 91.59%, and F1 score of 91.58%, compared to ViT 86.54%, 88.28%, 86.54%, and 86.39%, respectively. On the validation dataset, MobileNetV2, and ViT excel, with MobileNetV2 slightly ahead at 97.17% accuracy versus ViT 96.36%. MobileNetV2 demonstrates faster convergence during training and superior generalization to unseen data, despite both models showing signs of overfitting. These findings highlight MobileNetV2 balanced performance and robustness, making it the preferred choice for spoof detection applications where reliability on new data is essential. The study underscores the importance of model selection in security sensitive contexts and suggests MobileNetV2 as a practical solution for real world deployment.
Sepsis is a life-threatening syndrome with high morbidity and mortality in hospitals. Early prediction of sepsis plays a crucial role in facilitating early interventions for septic patients. However, early sepsis prediction systems with uncertainty quantification and adaptive learning are scarce. This paper proposes Sepsyn-OLCP, a novel online learning algorithm for early sepsis prediction by integrating conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification and Bayesian bandits for adaptive decision-making. By combining the robustness of Bayesian models with the statistical uncertainty guarantees of conformal prediction methodologies, this algorithm delivers accurate and trustworthy predictions, addressing the critical need for reliable and adaptive systems in high-stakes healthcare applications such as early sepsis prediction. We evaluate the performance of Sepsyn-OLCP in terms of regret in stochastic bandit setting, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and F-measure. Our results show that Sepsyn-OLCP outperforms existing individual models, increasing AUROC of a neural network from 0.64 to 0.73 without retraining and high computational costs. And the model selection policy converges to the optimal strategy in the long run. We propose a novel reinforcement learning-based framework integrated with conformal prediction techniques to provide uncertainty quantification for early sepsis prediction. The proposed methodology delivers accurate and trustworthy predictions, addressing a critical need in high-stakes healthcare applications like early sepsis prediction.
Facing the escalating threat of global wildfires, numerous computer vision techniques using remote sensing data have been applied in this area. However, the selection of deep learning methods for wildfire prediction remains uncertain due to the lack of comparative analysis in a quantitative and explainable manner, crucial for improving prevention measures and refining models. This study aims to thoroughly compare the performance, efficiency, and explainability of four prevalent deep learning architectures: Autoencoder, ResNet, UNet, and Transformer-based Swin-UNet. Employing a real-world dataset that includes nearly a decade of remote sensing data from California, U.S., these models predict the spread of wildfires for the following day. Through detailed quantitative comparison analysis, we discovered that Transformer-based Swin-UNet and UNet generally outperform Autoencoder and ResNet, particularly due to the advanced attention mechanisms in Transformer-based Swin-UNet and the efficient use of skip connections in both UNet and Transformer-based Swin-UNet, which contribute to superior predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Then we applied XAI techniques on all four models, this not only enhances the clarity and trustworthiness of models but also promotes focused improvements in wildfire prediction capabilities. The XAI analysis reveals that UNet and Transformer-based Swin-UNet are able to focus on critical features such as 'Previous Fire Mask', 'Drought', and 'Vegetation' more effectively than the other two models, while also maintaining balanced attention to the remaining features, leading to their superior performance. The insights from our thorough comparative analysis offer substantial implications for future model design and also provide guidance for model selection in different scenarios.
Model selection has been raised as an essential problem in the area of time series anomaly detection (TSAD), because there is no single best TSAD model for the highly heterogeneous time series in real-world applications. However, despite the success of existing model selection solutions that train a classification model (especially neural network, NN) using historical data as a selector to predict the correct TSAD model for each series, the NN-based selector learning methods used by existing solutions do not make full use of the knowledge in the historical data and require iterating over all training samples, which limits the accuracy and training speed of the selector. To address these limitations, we propose KDSelector, a novel knowledge-enhanced and data-efficient framework for learning the NN-based TSAD model selector, of which three key components are specifically designed to integrate available knowledge into the selector and dynamically prune less important and redundant samples during the learning. We develop a TSAD model selection system with KDSelector as the internal, to demonstrate how users improve the accuracy and training speed of their selectors by using KDSelector as a plug-and-play module. Our demonstration video is hosted at https://youtu.be/2uqupDWvTF0.
The goal of causal discovery is to learn a directed acyclic graph from data. One of the most well-known methods for this problem is Greedy Equivalence Search (GES). GES searches for the graph by incrementally and greedily adding or removing edges to maximize a model selection criterion. It has strong theoretical guarantees on infinite data but can fail in practice on finite data. In this paper, we first identify some of the causes of GES's failure, finding that it can get blocked in local optima, especially in denser graphs. We then propose eXtremely Greedy Equivalent Search (XGES), which involves a new heuristic to improve the search strategy of GES while retaining its theoretical guarantees. In particular, XGES favors deleting edges early in the search over inserting edges, which reduces the possibility of the search ending in local optima. A further contribution of this work is an efficient algorithmic formulation of XGES (and GES). We benchmark XGES on simulated datasets with known ground truth. We find that XGES consistently outperforms GES in recovering the correct graphs, and it is 10 times faster. XGES implementations in Python and C++ are available at https://github.com/ANazaret/XGES.
Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies. Not surprisingly, this area has attracted considerable attention from researchers, who have proposed a wide range of methods based on various backbones. However, the evaluation of the area often exhibits three systemic limitations: 1. Failure to account for the full spectrum of stock movement patterns observed in dynamic financial markets. (Diversity Gap), 2. The absence of unified assessment protocols undermines the validity of cross-study performance comparisons. (Standardization Deficit), and 3. Neglect of critical market structure factors, resulting in inflated performance metrics that lack practical applicability. (Real-World Mismatch). Addressing these limitations, we propose FinTSB, a comprehensive and practical benchmark for financial time series forecasting (FinTSF). To increase the variety, we categorize movement patterns into four specific parts, tokenize and pre-process the data, and assess the data quality based on some sequence characteristics. To eliminate biases due to different evaluation settings, we standardize the metrics across three dimensions and build a user-friendly, lightweight pipeline incorporating methods from various backbones. To accurately simulate real-world trading scenarios and facilitate practical implementation, we extensively model various regulatory constraints, including transaction fees, among others. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on FinTSB, highlighting key insights to guide model selection under varying market conditions. Overall, FinTSB provides researchers with a novel and comprehensive platform for improving and evaluating FinTSF methods. The code is available at https://github.com/TongjiFinLab/FinTSBenchmark.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated human-like instruction-following abilities, particularly those exceeding 100 billion parameters. The combined capability of some smaller, resource-friendly LLMs can address most of the instructions that larger LLMs excel at. In this work, we explore how to route the best-performing LLM for each instruction to achieve better overall performance. We develop a new paradigm, constructing capability instructions with model capability representation, user instruction, and performance inquiry prompts to assess the performance. To learn from capability instructions, we introduce a new end-to-end framework called Model Selection with Aptitude Test (Model-SAT), which generates positive and negative samples based on what different models perform well or struggle with. Model-SAT uses a model capability encoder that extends its model representation to a lightweight LLM. Our experiments show that Model-SAT understands the performance dimensions of candidate models and provides the probabilities of their capability to handle various instructions. Additionally, during deployment, a new model can quickly infer its aptitude test results across 50 tasks, each with 20 shots. Model-SAT performs state-of-the-art model routing without candidate inference and in real-world new model-released scenarios. The code is available at https://github.com/Now-Join-Us/CIT-LLM-Routing
Compound AI systems that combine multiple LLM calls, such as self-refine and multi-agent-debate, achieve strong performance on many AI tasks. We address a core question in optimizing compound systems: for each LLM call or module in the system, how should one decide which LLM to use? We show that these LLM choices have a large effect on quality, but the search space is exponential. We propose LLMSelector, an efficient framework for model selection in compound systems, which leverages two key empirical insights: (i) end-to-end performance is often monotonic in how well each module performs, with all other modules held fixed, and (ii) per-module performance can be estimated accurately by an LLM. Building upon these insights, LLMSelector iteratively selects one module and allocates to it the model with the highest module-wise performance, as estimated by an LLM, until no further gain is possible. LLMSelector is applicable to any compound system with a bounded number of modules, and its number of API calls scales linearly with the number of modules, achieving high-quality model allocation both empirically and theoretically. Experiments with popular compound systems such as multi-agent debate and self-refine using LLMs such as GPT-4o, Claude 3.5 Sonnet and Gemini 1.5 show that LLMSelector confers 5%-70% accuracy gains compared to using the same LLM for all modules.
This work investigates the ability of open Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict citation intent through in-context learning and fine-tuning. Unlike traditional approaches relying on domain-specific pre-trained models like SciBERT, we demonstrate that general-purpose LLMs can be adapted to this task with minimal task-specific data. We evaluate twelve model variations across five prominent open LLM families using zero-, one-, few-, and many-shot prompting. Our experimental study identifies the top-performing model and prompting parameters through extensive in-context learning experiments. We then demonstrate the significant impact of task-specific adaptation by fine-tuning this model, achieving a relative F1-score improvement of 8% on the SciCite dataset and 4.3% on the ACL-ARC dataset compared to the instruction-tuned baseline. These findings provide valuable insights for model selection and prompt engineering. Additionally, we make our end-to-end evaluation framework and models openly available for future use.
Evaluating models on large benchmarks is very resource-intensive, especially during the period of rapid model evolution. Existing efficient evaluation methods estimate the performance of target models by testing them only on a small and static coreset of the benchmark, which is derived from the publicly available evaluation results of source models. These methods rely on the assumption that target models have high prediction consistency with source models. However, we demonstrate that it doesn't generalize well in practice. To alleviate the inconsistency issue, we present TailoredBench, a method that conducts customized evaluation tailored to each target model. Specifically, a Global-coreset is first constructed as a probe to identify the most consistent source models for each target model with an adaptive source model selection strategy. Afterwards, a scalable K-Medoids clustering algorithm is proposed to extend the Global-coreset to a tailored Native-coreset for each target model. According to the predictions on Native-coresets, we obtain the performance of target models on the whole benchmark with a calibrated estimation strategy. Comprehensive experiments on 5 benchmarks across over 300 models demonstrate that compared to best performing baselines, TailoredBench achieves an average reduction of 31.4% in MAE of accuracy estimates under the same inference budgets, showcasing strong effectiveness and generalizability.
Large language models (LLMs) offer powerful capabilities but come with significant environmental impact, particularly in carbon emissions. Existing studies benchmark carbon emissions but lack a standardized basis for comparison across different model configurations. To address this, we introduce the concept of functional unit (FU) as a standardized basis and develop FUEL, the first FU-based framework for evaluating LLM serving's environmental impact. Through three case studies, we uncover key insights and trade-offs in reducing carbon emissions by optimizing model size, quantization strategy, and hardware choice, paving the way for more sustainable LLM serving. The code is available at https://github.com/jojacola/FUEL.
Recent advancements in foundation models have transformed computer vision, driving significant performance improvements across diverse domains, including digital histopathology. However, the advantages of domain-specific histopathology foundation models over general-purpose models for specialized tasks such as cell analysis remain underexplored. This study investigates the representation learning gap between these two categories by analyzing multi-level patch embeddings applied to cell instance segmentation and classification. We implement an encoder-decoder architecture with a consistent decoder and various encoders. These include convolutional, vision transformer (ViT), and hybrid encoders pre-trained on ImageNet-22K or LVD-142M, representing general-purpose foundation models. These are compared against ViT encoders from the recently released UNI, Virchow2, and Prov-GigaPath foundation models, trained on patches extracted from hundreds of thousands of histopathology whole-slide images. The decoder integrates patch embeddings from different encoder depths via skip connections to generate semantic and distance maps. These maps are then post-processed to create instance segmentation masks where each label corresponds to an individual cell and to perform cell-type classification. All encoders remain frozen during training to assess their pre-trained feature extraction capabilities. Using the PanNuke and CoNIC histopathology datasets, and the newly introduced Nissl-stained CytoDArk0 dataset for brain cytoarchitecture studies, we evaluate instance-level detection, segmentation accuracy, and cell-type classification. This study provides insights into the comparative strengths and limitations of general-purpose vs. histopathology foundation models, offering guidance for model selection in cell-focused histopathology and brain cytoarchitecture analysis workflows.
Federated Learning (FL) enables collaborative model training across multiple devices while preserving data privacy. However, it remains susceptible to backdoor attacks, where malicious participants can compromise the global model. Existing defence methods are limited by strict assumptions on data heterogeneity (Non-Independent and Identically Distributed data) and the proportion of malicious clients, reducing their practicality and effectiveness. To overcome these limitations, we propose Robust Knowledge Distillation (RKD), a novel defence mechanism that enhances model integrity without relying on restrictive assumptions. RKD integrates clustering and model selection techniques to identify and filter out malicious updates, forming a reliable ensemble of models. It then employs knowledge distillation to transfer the collective insights from this ensemble to a global model. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that RKD effectively mitigates backdoor threats while maintaining high model performance, outperforming current state-of-the-art defence methods across various scenarios.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities across various natural language processing tasks but often struggle to excel uniformly in diverse or complex domains. We propose a novel ensemble method - Diverse Fingerprint Ensemble (DFPE), which leverages the complementary strengths of multiple LLMs to achieve more robust performance. Our approach involves: (1) clustering models based on response "fingerprints" patterns, (2) applying a quantile-based filtering mechanism to remove underperforming models at a per-subject level, and (3) assigning adaptive weights to remaining models based on their subject-wise validation accuracy. In experiments on the Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark, DFPE outperforms the best single model by 3% overall accuracy and 5% in discipline-level accuracy. This method increases the robustness and generalization of LLMs and underscores how model selection, diversity preservation, and performance-driven weighting can effectively address challenging, multi-faceted language understanding tasks.
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case data, the expected distribution of which is known as the offspring distribution. However, this data is seldom available. Here we introduce a multi-model framework fit to incidence time-series, data that is much more readily available. The framework consists of five discrete-time, stochastic, branching-process models of epidemics spread through a susceptible population. The framework includes a baseline model of homogeneous transmission, a unimodal and a bimodal model for super-spreading events, as well as a unimodal and a bimodal model for super-spreading individuals. Bayesian statistics is used to infer model parameters using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo. Model comparison is conducted by computing Bayes factors, with importance sampling used to estimate the marginal likelihood of each model. This estimator is selected for its consistency and lower variance compared to alternatives. Application to simulated data from each model identifies the correct model for the majority of simulations and accurately infers the true parameters, such as the basic reproduction number. We also apply our methods to incidence data from the 2003 SARS outbreak and the Covid-19 pandemic. Model selection consistently identifies the same model and mechanism for a given disease, even when using different time series. Our estimates are consistent with previous studies based on secondary case data. Quantifying the contribution of super-spreading to disease transmission has important implications for infectious disease management and control. Our modelling framework is disease-agnostic and implemented as an R package, with potential to be a valuable tool for public health.