In this paper, we propose novel Gaussian process-gated hierarchical mixtures of experts (GPHMEs). Unlike other mixtures of experts with gating models linear in the input, our model employs gating functions built with Gaussian processes (GPs). These processes are based on random features that are non-linear functions of the inputs. Furthermore, the experts in our model are also constructed with GPs. The optimization of the GPHMEs is performed by variational inference. The proposed GPHMEs have several advantages. They outperform tree-based HME benchmarks that partition the data in the input space, and they achieve good performance with reduced complexity. Another advantage is the interpretability they provide for deep GPs, and more generally, for deep Bayesian neural networks. Our GPHMEs demonstrate excellent performance for large-scale data sets, even with quite modest sizes.
The canonical formulation of federated learning treats it as a distributed optimization problem where the model parameters are optimized against a global loss function that decomposes across client loss functions. A recent alternative formulation instead treats federated learning as a distributed inference problem, where the goal is to infer a global posterior from partitioned client data (Al-Shedivat et al., 2021). This paper extends the inference view and describes a variational inference formulation of federated learning where the goal is to find a global variational posterior that well-approximates the true posterior. This naturally motivates an expectation propagation approach to federated learning (FedEP), where approximations to the global posterior are iteratively refined through probabilistic message-passing between the central server and the clients. We conduct an extensive empirical study across various algorithmic considerations and describe practical strategies for scaling up expectation propagation to the modern federated setting. We apply FedEP on standard federated learning benchmarks and find that it outperforms strong baselines in terms of both convergence speed and accuracy.
The advances in variational inference are providing promising paths in Bayesian estimation problems. These advances make variational phylogenetic inference an alternative approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for approximating the phylogenetic posterior. However, one of the main drawbacks of such approaches is modelling the prior through fixed distributions, which could bias the posterior approximation if they are distant from the current data distribution. In this paper, we propose an approach and an implementation framework to relax the rigidity of the prior densities by learning their parameters using a gradient-based method and a neural network-based parameterization. We applied this approach for branch lengths and evolutionary parameters estimation under several Markov chain substitution models. The results of performed simulations show that the approach is powerful in estimating branch lengths and evolutionary model parameters. They also show that a flexible prior model could provide better results than a predefined prior model. Finally, the results highlight that using neural networks improves the initialization of the optimization of the prior density parameters.
Traditional neural networks are simple to train but they typically produce overconfident predictions. In contrast, Bayesian neural networks provide good uncertainty quantification but optimizing them is time consuming due to the large parameter space. This paper proposes to combine the advantages of both approaches by performing Variational Inference in the Final layer Output space (VIFO), because the output space is much smaller than the parameter space. We use neural networks to learn the mean and the variance of the probabilistic output. Using the Bayesian formulation we incorporate collapsed variational inference with VIFO which significantly improves the performance in practice. On the other hand, like standard, non-Bayesian models, VIFO enjoys simple training and one can use Rademacher complexity to provide risk bounds for the model. Experiments show that VIFO provides a good tradeoff in terms of run time and uncertainty quantification, especially for out of distribution data.
Generative flow networks (GFlowNets) are amortized variational inference algorithms that are trained to sample from unnormalized target distributions over compositional objects. A key limitation of GFlowNets until this time has been that they are restricted to discrete spaces. We present a theory for generalized GFlowNets, which encompasses both existing discrete GFlowNets and ones with continuous or hybrid state spaces, and perform experiments with two goals in mind. First, we illustrate critical points of the theory and the importance of various assumptions. Second, we empirically demonstrate how observations about discrete GFlowNets transfer to the continuous case and show strong results compared to non-GFlowNet baselines on several previously studied tasks. This work greatly widens the perspectives for the application of GFlowNets in probabilistic inference and various modeling settings.
Model-based methods have recently shown great potential for off-policy evaluation (OPE); offline trajectories induced by behavioral policies are fitted to transitions of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are used to rollout simulated trajectories and estimate the performance of policies. Model-based OPE methods face two key challenges. First, as offline trajectories are usually fixed, they tend to cover limited state and action space. Second, the performance of model-based methods can be sensitive to the initialization of their parameters. In this work, we propose the variational latent branching model (VLBM) to learn the transition function of MDPs by formulating the environmental dynamics as a compact latent space, from which the next states and rewards are then sampled. Specifically, VLBM leverages and extends the variational inference framework with the recurrent state alignment (RSA), which is designed to capture as much information underlying the limited training data, by smoothing out the information flow between the variational (encoding) and generative (decoding) part of VLBM. Moreover, we also introduce the branching architecture to improve the model's robustness against randomly initialized model weights. The effectiveness of the VLBM is evaluated on the deep OPE (DOPE) benchmark, from which the training trajectories are designed to result in varied coverage of the state-action space. We show that the VLBM outperforms existing state-of-the-art OPE methods in general.
Normalizing flows (NF) are a class of powerful generative models that have gained popularity in recent years due to their ability to model complex distributions with high flexibility and expressiveness. In this work, we introduce a new type of normalizing flow that is tailored for modeling positions and orientations of multiple objects in three-dimensional space, such as molecules in a crystal. Our approach is based on two key ideas: first, we define smooth and expressive flows on the group of unit quaternions, which allows us to capture the continuous rotational motion of rigid bodies; second, we use the double cover property of unit quaternions to define a proper density on the rotation group. This ensures that our model can be trained using standard likelihood-based methods or variational inference with respect to a thermodynamic target density. We evaluate the method by training Boltzmann generators for two molecular examples, namely the multi-modal density of a tetrahedral system in an external field and the ice XI phase in the TIP4P water model. Our flows can be combined with flows operating on the internal degrees of freedom of molecules and constitute an important step towards the modeling of distributions of many interacting molecules.
In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.
Topic models and all their variants analyse text by learning meaningful representations through word co-occurrences. As pointed out by Williamson et al. (2010), such models implicitly assume that the probability of a topic to be active and its proportion within each document are positively correlated. This correlation can be strongly detrimental in the case of documents created over time, simply because recent documents are likely better described by new and hence rare topics. In this work we leverage recent advances in neural variational inference and present an alternative neural approach to the dynamic Focused Topic Model. Indeed, we develop a neural model for topic evolution which exploits sequences of Bernoulli random variables in order to track the appearances of topics, thereby decoupling their activities from their proportions. We evaluate our model on three different datasets (the UN general debates, the collection of NeurIPS papers, and the ACL Anthology dataset) and show that it (i) outperforms state-of-the-art topic models in generalization tasks and (ii) performs comparably to them on prediction tasks, while employing roughly the same number of parameters, and converging about two times faster. Source code to reproduce our experiments is available online.
The Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) has garnered considerable attention over the past decade. However, the standard GP with a preliminary kernel, such as the squared exponential kernel or Mat\'{e}rn kernel, that is commonly used in GPSSM studies, limits the model's representation power and substantially restricts its applicability to complex scenarios. To address this issue, we propose a new class of probabilistic state-space models called TGPSSMs, which leverage a parametric normalizing flow to enrich the GP priors in the standard GPSSM, enabling greater flexibility and expressivity. Additionally, we present a scalable variational inference algorithm that offers a flexible and optimal structure for the variational distribution of latent states. The proposed algorithm is interpretable and computationally efficient due to the sparse GP representation and the bijective nature of normalizing flow. Moreover, we incorporate a constrained optimization framework into the algorithm to enhance the state-space representation capabilities and optimize the hyperparameters, leading to superior learning and inference performance. Experimental results on synthetic and real datasets corroborate that the proposed TGPSSM outperforms several state-of-the-art methods. The accompanying source code is available at \url{https://github.com/zhidilin/TGPSSM}.
Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing model variations that remain consistent with training data enables more robust predictions by reducing parameter sensitivity. This work introduces a fixed-point optimization for variational inference that is applicable when every feasible log density can be expressed as a linear combination of functions from a given basis. In such cases, the optimizer becomes a fixed-point of projective integral updates. When the basis spans univariate quadratics in each parameter, feasible densities are Gaussian and the projective integral updates yield quasi-Newton variational Bayes (QNVB). Other bases and updates are also possible. As these updates require high-dimensional integration, this work first proposes an efficient quasirandom quadrature sequence for mean-field distributions. Each iterate of the sequence contains two evaluation points that combine to correctly integrate all univariate quadratics and, if the mean-field factors are symmetric, all univariate cubics. More importantly, averaging results over short subsequences achieves periodic exactness on a much larger space of multivariate quadratics. The corresponding variational updates require 4 loss evaluations with standard (not second-order) backpropagation to eliminate error terms from over half of all multivariate quadratic basis functions. This integration technique is motivated by first proposing stochastic blocked mean-field quadratures, which may be useful in other contexts. A PyTorch implementation of QNVB allows for better control over model uncertainty during training than competing methods. Experiments demonstrate superior generalizability for multiple learning problems and architectures.
Visual localization allows autonomous robots to relocalize when losing track of their pose by matching their current observation with past ones. However, ambiguous scenes pose a challenge for such systems, as repetitive structures can be viewed from many distinct, equally likely camera poses, which means it is not sufficient to produce a single best pose hypothesis. In this work, we propose a probabilistic framework that for a given image predicts the arbitrarily shaped posterior distribution of its camera pose. We do this via a novel formulation of camera pose regression using variational inference, which allows sampling from the predicted distribution. Our method outperforms existing methods on localization in ambiguous scenes. Code and data will be released at https://github.com/efreidun/vapor.
Prior works on joint Information Extraction (IE) typically model instance (e.g., event triggers, entities, roles, relations) interactions by representation enhancement, type dependencies scoring, or global decoding. We find that the previous models generally consider binary type dependency scoring of a pair of instances, and leverage local search such as beam search to approximate global solutions. To better integrate cross-instance interactions, in this work, we introduce a joint IE framework (CRFIE) that formulates joint IE as a high-order Conditional Random Field. Specifically, we design binary factors and ternary factors to directly model interactions between not only a pair of instances but also triplets. Then, these factors are utilized to jointly predict labels of all instances. To address the intractability problem of exact high-order inference, we incorporate a high-order neural decoder that is unfolded from a mean-field variational inference method, which achieves consistent learning and inference. The experimental results show that our approach achieves consistent improvements on three IE tasks compared with our baseline and prior work.
We introduce ensembles of stochastic neural networks to approximate the Bayesian posterior, combining stochastic methods such as dropout with deep ensembles. The stochastic ensembles are formulated as families of distributions and trained to approximate the Bayesian posterior with variational inference. We implement stochastic ensembles based on Monte Carlo dropout, DropConnect and a novel non-parametric version of dropout and evaluate them on a toy problem and CIFAR image classification. For both tasks, we test the quality of the posteriors directly against Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that stochastic ensembles provide more accurate posterior estimates than other popular baselines for Bayesian inference.
Ultra-fine entity typing (UFET) aims to predict a wide range of type phrases that correctly describe the categories of a given entity mention in a sentence. Most recent works infer each entity type independently, ignoring the correlations between types, e.g., when an entity is inferred as a president, it should also be a politician and a leader. To this end, we use an undirected graphical model called pairwise conditional random field (PCRF) to formulate the UFET problem, in which the type variables are not only unarily influenced by the input but also pairwisely relate to all the other type variables. We use various modern backbones for entity typing to compute unary potentials, and derive pairwise potentials from type phrase representations that both capture prior semantic information and facilitate accelerated inference. We use mean-field variational inference for efficient type inference on very large type sets and unfold it as a neural network module to enable end-to-end training. Experiments on UFET show that the Neural-PCRF consistently outperforms its backbones with little cost and results in a competitive performance against cross-encoder based SOTA while being thousands of times faster. We also find Neural- PCRF effective on a widely used fine-grained entity typing dataset with a smaller type set. We pack Neural-PCRF as a network module that can be plugged onto multi-label type classifiers with ease and release it in https://github.com/modelscope/adaseq/tree/master/examples/NPCRF.
Air pollution kills around 7 million people annually, and approximately 2.4 billion people are exposed to hazardous air pollution. Accurate, fine-grained air quality (AQ) monitoring is essential to control and reduce pollution. However, AQ station deployment is sparse, and thus air quality inference for unmonitored locations is crucial. Conventional interpolation methods fail to learn the complex AQ phenomena. This work demonstrates that Deep Gaussian Process models (DGPs) are a promising model for the task of AQ inference. We implement Doubly Stochastic Variational Inference, a DGP algorithm, and show that it performs comparably to the state-of-the-art models.
We describe a neural transducer that maintains the flexibility of standard sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models while incorporating hierarchical phrases as a source of inductive bias during training and as explicit constraints during inference. Our approach trains two models: a discriminative parser based on a bracketing transduction grammar whose derivation tree hierarchically aligns source and target phrases, and a neural seq2seq model that learns to translate the aligned phrases one-by-one. We use the same seq2seq model to translate at all phrase scales, which results in two inference modes: one mode in which the parser is discarded and only the seq2seq component is used at the sequence-level, and another in which the parser is combined with the seq2seq model. Decoding in the latter mode is done with the cube-pruned CKY algorithm, which is more involved but can make use of new translation rules during inference. We formalize our model as a source-conditioned synchronous grammar and develop an efficient variational inference algorithm for training. When applied on top of both randomly initialized and pretrained seq2seq models, we find that both inference modes performs well compared to baselines on small scale machine translation benchmarks.
Historical Document Image Binarization is a well-known segmentation problem in image processing. Despite ubiquity, traditional thresholding algorithms achieved limited success on severely degraded document images. With the advent of deep learning, several segmentation models were proposed that made significant progress in the field but were limited by the unavailability of large training datasets. To mitigate this problem, we have proposed a novel two-stage framework -- the first of which comprises a generator that generates degraded samples using variational inference and the second being a CNN-based binarization network that trains on the generated data. We evaluated our framework on a range of DIBCO datasets, where it achieved competitive results against previous state-of-the-art methods.
We present the development of a semi-supervised regression method using variational autoencoders (VAE), which is customized for use in soft sensing applications. We motivate the use of semi-supervised learning considering the fact that process quality variables are not collected at the same frequency as other process variables leading to many unlabelled records in operational datasets. These unlabelled records are not possible to use for training quality variable predictions based on supervised learning methods. Use of VAEs for unsupervised learning is well established and recently they were used for regression applications based on variational inference procedures. We extend this approach of supervised VAEs for regression (SVAER) to make it learn from unlabelled data leading to semi-supervised VAEs for regression (SSVAER), then we make further modifications to their architecture using additional regularization components to make SSVAER well suited for learning from both labelled and unlabelled process data. The probabilistic regressor resulting from the variational approach makes it possible to estimate the variance of the predictions simultaneously, which provides an uncertainty quantification along with the generated predictions. We provide an extensive comparative study of SSVAER with other publicly available semi-supervised and supervised learning methods on two benchmark problems using fixed-size datasets, where we vary the percentage of labelled data available for training. In these experiments, SSVAER achieves the lowest test errors in 11 of the 20 studied cases, compared to other methods where the second best gets 4 lowest test errors out of the 20.
Standard imitation learning can fail when the expert demonstrators have different sensory inputs than the imitating agent. This is because partial observability gives rise to hidden confounders in the causal graph. In previous work, to work around the confounding problem, policies have been trained using query access to the expert's policy or inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). However, both approaches have drawbacks as the expert's policy may not be available and IRL can be unstable in practice. Instead, we propose to train a variational inference model to infer the expert's latent information and use it to train a latent-conditional policy. We prove that using this method, under strong assumptions, the identification of the correct imitation learning policy is theoretically possible from expert demonstrations alone. In practice, we focus on a setting with less strong assumptions where we use exploration data for learning the inference model. We show in theory and practice that this algorithm converges to the correct interventional policy, solves the confounding issue, and can under certain assumptions achieve an asymptotically optimal imitation performance.