Multitemporal hyperspectral unmixing (MTHU) is a fundamental tool in the analysis of hyperspectral image sequences. It reveals the dynamical evolution of the materials (endmembers) and of their proportions (abundances) in a given scene. However, adequately accounting for the spatial and temporal variability of the endmembers in MTHU is challenging, and has not been fully addressed so far in unsupervised frameworks. In this work, we propose an unsupervised MTHU algorithm based on variational recurrent neural networks. First, a stochastic model is proposed to represent both the dynamical evolution of the endmembers and their abundances, as well as the mixing process. Moreover, a new model based on a low-dimensional parametrization is used to represent spatial and temporal endmember variability, significantly reducing the amount of variables to be estimated. We propose to formulate MTHU as a Bayesian inference problem. However, the solution to this problem does not have an analytical solution due to the nonlinearity and non-Gaussianity of the model. Thus, we propose a solution based on deep variational inference, in which the posterior distribution of the estimated abundances and endmembers is represented by using a combination of recurrent neural networks and a physically motivated model. The parameters of the model are learned using stochastic backpropagation. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms state of the art MTHU algorithms.
Flexible Bayesian models are typically constructed using limits of large parametric models with a multitude of parameters that are often uninterpretable. In this article, we offer a novel alternative by constructing an exponentially tilted empirical likelihood carefully designed to concentrate near a parametric family of distributions of choice with respect to a novel variant of the Wasserstein metric, which is then combined with a prior distribution on model parameters to obtain a robustified posterior. The proposed approach finds applications in a wide variety of robust inference problems, where we intend to perform inference on the parameters associated with the centering distribution in presence of outliers. Our proposed transport metric enjoys great computational simplicity, exploiting the Sinkhorn regularization for discrete optimal transport problems, and being inherently parallelizable. We demonstrate superior performance of our methodology when compared against state-of-the-art robust Bayesian inference methods. We also demonstrate equivalence of our approach with a nonparametric Bayesian formulation under a suitable asymptotic framework, testifying to its flexibility. The constrained entropy maximization that sits at the heart of our likelihood formulation finds its utility beyond robust Bayesian inference; an illustration is provided in a trustworthy machine learning application.
PyVBMC is a Python implementation of the Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC) algorithm for posterior and model inference for black-box computational models (Acerbi, 2018, 2020). VBMC is an approximate inference method designed for efficient parameter estimation and model assessment when model evaluations are mildly-to-very expensive (e.g., a second or more) and/or noisy. Specifically, VBMC computes: - a flexible (non-Gaussian) approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters, from which statistics and posterior samples can be easily extracted; - an approximation of the model evidence or marginal likelihood, a metric used for Bayesian model selection. PyVBMC can be applied to any computational or statistical model with up to roughly 10-15 continuous parameters, with the only requirement that the user can provide a Python function that computes the target log likelihood of the model, or an approximation thereof (e.g., an estimate of the likelihood obtained via simulation or Monte Carlo methods). PyVBMC is particularly effective when the model takes more than about a second per evaluation, with dramatic speed-ups of 1-2 orders of magnitude when compared to traditional approximate inference methods. Extensive benchmarks on both artificial test problems and a large number of real models from the computational sciences, particularly computational and cognitive neuroscience, show that VBMC generally - and often vastly - outperforms alternative methods for sample-efficient Bayesian inference, and is applicable to both exact and simulator-based models (Acerbi, 2018, 2019, 2020). PyVBMC brings this state-of-the-art inference algorithm to Python, along with an easy-to-use Pythonic interface for running the algorithm and manipulating and visualizing its results.
Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for learning from complex data and reasoning under uncertainty. It has been widely applied in machine learning tasks such as medical diagnosis, drug design, and policymaking. In these common applications, data can be highly sensitive. Differential privacy (DP) offers data analysis tools with powerful worst-case privacy guarantees and has been developed as the leading approach in privacy-preserving data analysis. In this paper, we study Metropolis-Hastings (MH), one of the most fundamental MCMC methods, for large-scale Bayesian inference under differential privacy. While most existing private MCMC algorithms sacrifice accuracy and efficiency to obtain privacy, we provide the first exact and fast DP MH algorithm, using only a minibatch of data in most iterations. We further reveal, for the first time, a three-way trade-off among privacy, scalability (i.e. the batch size), and efficiency (i.e. the convergence rate), theoretically characterizing how privacy affects the utility and computational cost in Bayesian inference. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our algorithm in various experiments.
Recent research is revealing how cognitive processes are supported by a complex interplay between the brain and the rest of the body, which can be investigated by the analysis of physiological features such as breathing rhythms, heart rate, and skin conductance. Heart rate dynamics are of particular interest as they provide a way to track the sympathetic and parasympathetic outflow from the autonomic nervous system, which is known to play a key role in modulating attention, memory, decision-making, and emotional processing. However, extracting useful information from heartbeats about the autonomic outflow is still challenging due to the noisy estimates that result from standard signal-processing methods. To advance this state of affairs, we propose a paradigm shift in how we conceptualise and model heart rate: instead of being a mere summary of the observed inter-beat intervals, we introduce a modelling framework that views heart rate as a hidden stochastic process that drives the observed heartbeats. Moreover, by leveraging the rich literature of state-space modelling and Bayesian inference, our proposed framework delivers a description of heart rate dynamics that is not a point estimate but a posterior distribution of a generative model. We illustrate the capabilities of our method by showing that it recapitulates linear properties of conventional heart rate estimators, while exhibiting a better discriminative power for metrics of dynamical complexity compared across different physiological states.
In applied Bayesian inference scenarios, users may have access to a large number of pre-existing model evaluations, for example from maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) optimization runs. However, traditional approximate inference techniques make little to no use of this available information. We propose the framework of post-process Bayesian inference as a means to obtain a quick posterior approximation from existing target density evaluations, with no further model calls. Within this framework, we introduce Variational Sparse Bayesian Quadrature (VSBQ), a method for post-process approximate inference for models with black-box and potentially noisy likelihoods. VSBQ reuses existing target density evaluations to build a sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model of the log posterior density function. Subsequently, we leverage sparse-GP Bayesian quadrature combined with variational inference to achieve fast approximate posterior inference over the surrogate. We validate our method on challenging synthetic scenarios and real-world applications from computational neuroscience. The experiments show that VSBQ builds high-quality posterior approximations by post-processing existing optimization traces, with no further model evaluations.
Stochastic-gradient sampling methods are often used to perform Bayesian inference on neural networks. It has been observed that the methods in which notions of differential geometry are included tend to have better performances, with the Riemannian metric improving posterior exploration by accounting for the local curvature. However, the existing methods often resort to simple diagonal metrics to remain computationally efficient. This loses some of the gains. We propose two non-diagonal metrics that can be used in stochastic-gradient samplers to improve convergence and exploration but have only a minor computational overhead over diagonal metrics. We show that for fully connected neural networks (NNs) with sparsity-inducing priors and convolutional NNs with correlated priors, using these metrics can provide improvements. For some other choices the posterior is sufficiently easy also for the simpler metrics.
In recent years, methods for Bayesian inference have been widely used in many different problems in physics where detection and characterization are necessary. Data analysis in gravitational-wave astronomy is a prime example of such a case. Bayesian inference has been very successful because this technique provides a representation of the parameters as a posterior probability distribution, with uncertainties informed by the precision of the experimental measurements. During the last couple of decades, many specific advances have been proposed and employed in order to solve a large variety of different problems. In this work, we present a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that integrates many of those concepts into a single MCMC package. For this purpose, we have built {\tt Eryn}, a user-friendly and multipurpose toolbox for Bayesian inference, which can be utilized for solving parameter estimation and model selection problems, ranging from simple inference questions, to those with large-scale model variation requiring trans-dimensional MCMC methods, like the LISA global fit problem. In this paper, we describe this sampler package and illustrate its capabilities on a variety of use cases.
Transformer models have achieved profound success in prediction tasks in a wide range of applications in natural language processing, speech recognition and computer vision. Extending Transformer's success to safety-critical domains requires calibrated uncertainty estimation which remains under-explored. To address this, we propose Sparse Gaussian Process attention (SGPA), which performs Bayesian inference directly in the output space of multi-head attention blocks (MHAs) in transformer to calibrate its uncertainty. It replaces the scaled dot-product operation with a valid symmetric kernel and uses sparse Gaussian processes (SGP) techniques to approximate the posterior processes of MHA outputs. Empirically, on a suite of prediction tasks on text, images and graphs, SGPA-based Transformers achieve competitive predictive accuracy, while noticeably improving both in-distribution calibration and out-of-distribution robustness and detection.
We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high frequency trading data and deep learning. Bayesian inference via the Sequential Monte Carlo method is employed for statistical inference and forecasting. The new framework can jointly model the returns and realized volatility measures, has an excellent in-sample fit and superior predictive performance compared to several benchmark models, while being able to adapt well to the stylized facts in volatility. The performance of the new framework is tested using a wide range of metrics, from marginal likelihood, volatility forecasting, to tail risk forecasting and option pricing. We report on a comprehensive empirical study using 31 widely traded stock indices over a time period that includes COVID-19 pandemic.
Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) were originally motivated (Kingma & Welling, 2014) as probabilistic generative models in which one performs approximate Bayesian inference. The proposal of $\beta$-VAEs (Higgins et al., 2017) breaks this interpretation and generalizes VAEs to application domains beyond generative modeling (e.g., representation learning, clustering, or lossy data compression) by introducing an objective function that allows practitioners to trade off between the information content ("bit rate") of the latent representation and the distortion of reconstructed data (Alemi et al., 2018). In this paper, we reconsider this rate/distortion trade-off in the context of hierarchical VAEs, i.e., VAEs with more than one layer of latent variables. We identify a general class of inference models for which one can split the rate into contributions from each layer, which can then be tuned independently. We derive theoretical bounds on the performance of downstream tasks as functions of the individual layers' rates and verify our theoretical findings in large-scale experiments. Our results provide guidance for practitioners on which region in rate-space to target for a given application.
We present Fortuna, an open-source library for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Fortuna supports a range of calibration techniques, such as conformal prediction that can be applied to any trained neural network to generate reliable uncertainty estimates, and scalable Bayesian inference methods that can be applied to Flax-based deep neural networks trained from scratch for improved uncertainty quantification and accuracy. By providing a coherent framework for advanced uncertainty quantification methods, Fortuna simplifies the process of benchmarking and helps practitioners build robust AI systems.
Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.
Although tissues are usually studied in isolation, this situation rarely occurs in biology, as cells, tissues, and organs, coexist and interact across scales to determine both shape and function. Here, we take a quantitative approach combining data from recent experiments, mathematical modelling, and Bayesian parameter inference, to describe the self-assembly of multiple epithelial sheets by growth and collision. We use two simple and well-studied continuum models, where cells move either randomly or following population pressure gradients. After suitable calibration, both models prove to be practically identifiable, and can reproduce the main features of single tissue expansions. However, our findings reveal that whenever tissue-tissue interactions become relevant, the random motion assumption can lead to unrealistic behaviour. Under this setting, a model accounting for population pressure from different cell populations is more appropriate and shows a better agreement with experimental measurements. Finally, we discuss how tissue shape and pressure affect multi-tissue collisions. Our work thus provides a systematic approach to quantify and predict complex tissue configurations with applications in the design of tissue composites and more generally in tissue engineering.
Normalizing Flows (NF) are Generative models which are particularly robust and allow for exact sampling of the learned distribution. They however require the design of an invertible mapping, whose Jacobian determinant has to be computable. Recently introduced, Neural Hamiltonian Flows (NHF) are based on Hamiltonian dynamics-based Flows, which are continuous, volume-preserving and invertible and thus make for natural candidates for robust NF architectures. In particular, their similarity to classical Mechanics could lead to easier interpretability of the learned mapping. However, despite being Physics-inspired architectures, the originally introduced NHF architecture still poses a challenge to interpretability. For this reason, in this work, we introduce a fixed kinetic energy version of the NHF model. Inspired by physics, our approach improves interpretability and requires less parameters than previously proposed architectures. We then study the robustness of the NHF architectures to the choice of hyperparameters. We analyze the impact of the number of leapfrog steps, the integration time and the number of neurons per hidden layer, as well as the choice of prior distribution, on sampling a multimodal 2D mixture. The NHF architecture is robust to these choices, especially the fixed-kinetic energy model. Finally, we adapt NHF to the context of Bayesian inference and illustrate our method on sampling the posterior distribution of two cosmological parameters knowing type Ia supernovae observations.
In practical compressed sensing (CS), the obtained measurements typically necessitate quantization to a limited number of bits prior to transmission or storage. This nonlinear quantization process poses significant recovery challenges, particularly with extreme coarse quantization such as 1-bit. Recently, an efficient algorithm called QCS-SGM was proposed for quantized CS (QCS) which utilizes score-based generative models (SGM) as an implicit prior. Due to the adeptness of SGM in capturing the intricate structures of natural signals, QCS-SGM substantially outperforms previous QCS methods. However, QCS-SGM is constrained to (approximately) row-orthogonal sensing matrices as the computation of the likelihood score becomes intractable otherwise. To address this limitation, we introduce an advanced variant of QCS-SGM, termed QCS-SGM+, capable of handling general matrices effectively. The key idea is a Bayesian inference perspective on the likelihood score computation, wherein expectation propagation is employed for its approximate computation. Extensive experiments are conducted, demonstrating the substantial superiority of QCS-SGM+ over QCS-SGM for general sensing matrices beyond mere row-orthogonality.
We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.
Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-$m$ rate, where $m$ is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large $m$ is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.
In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.
Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.