In this paper, we establish a universal approximation theorem for solution operators of semilinear stochastic heat equations in spatial dimension \(d\ge2\), extending deep neural operator approximation results to SPDEs with distribution-valued Gaussian forcing. A smooth Fourier cutoff reduces the forcing to finitely many measurements, while Besov and Schauder estimates control the resulting solution error. The finite-dimensional solution map is then approximated by ReLU branch networks together with grid-based trunk functions, yielding explicit bounds on the numbers of forcing measurements and trunk functions and approximation in every finite stochastic moment. For linear equations, the reduction coincides with truncation of the first Wiener chaos. Lastly, as an application, we prove a high-probability local-in-time approximation theorem for stochastic Navier--Stokes equations, with finite measurements of both the initial condition and forcing and an explicit sensing rate.
The classical model-based optimal design criteria (D-, T-, L-, C-, and A-optimality) are usually motivated via the Cram\'er--Rao bound as optimizing scalar functions of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). This paper offers a complementary reading in which each criterion appears asymptotically as $N \to \infty$ as the leading-order term of an expected dissimilarity between prior and posterior, with the FIM entering through the Bernstein--von Mises limit. The Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence of the posterior relative to the prior recovers D-optimality (classically known); a reverse KL of the prior relative to the posterior recovers T-optimality (here defined as maximization of the trace of the FIM, following one common convention) and its weighted-trace generalization; and a first-order approximation of the squared 2-Wasserstein distance recovers L-, C- and A-optimality. The five criteria emerge as instances of a common Bayesian-geometric template, indexed by three choices: the dissimilarity, the prior parametrization, and the approximation scheme used to evaluate it (e.g.\ Taylor expansions of the matrix square root). For the weighted criteria, the Gaussian prior covariance encodes the criterion's weight matrix, so any choice of weights corresponds to a specific prior in the family. The T-, L-, C-, and A-optimality derivations appear novel to the best of my knowledge. A sixth criterion, E-optimality, is recovered not as an independent expected-dissimilarity limit but as a min-max robustification of C-optimality against uncertainty in the modeler's prior direction. The framework is extended to distinguish between a designer's prior over unknown parameters at design time and a modeler's prior used for posterior inference, recovering the classical expected information gain objective as a special case.
Bubeck and Sellke's universal law of robustness says that fitting $n$ noisy samples below the noise level with a class of $p$ real parameters forces a Lipschitz constant of order $\sqrt{nd/p}$, when the covariate distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ is isoperimetric: smooth interpolation costs a factor $d$ of overparametrization. Its hypotheses are Gaussian-type concentration, a homogeneous covariate law, scalar outputs, and independent samples; we relax each one. Exponential concentration suffices, at the unchanged rate and absolute constant and at the price of a capacity burn-in, some form of which we show is necessary; this gives the law for normalized log-concave covariates, with a $\log d$ loss from the current KLS bound. For heterogeneous mixtures the worst component constant is replaced by the weighted average of the component constants, under a typicality condition on the mixture composition. For vector-valued predictors the bound at the Frobenius Lipschitz scale is free of the output dimension $K$, and the Euclidean bound loses only $K^{-1/2}$, a loss that covariate-independent noise removes. Stationary Markov covariates retain the i.i.d. rate, the pseudo-spectral gap entering only the sample-size conditions. One master theorem carries the shared argument, and constants are explicit throughout.
We study the long-context limit of softmax self-attention with a fixed query and a random context of $n$ i.i.d. keys on the sphere with the intrinsic dimension of the key distribution held fixed, viewing the inverse temperature $\beta_n$ as the scaling parameter that decides whether attention degenerates into uniform averaging or collapses onto the single closest key. We show that the critical scale at which selectivity emerges is determined by the local exponent of the distance-to-query distribution near zero rather than by global features of the context, and scales like $\beta_n^\ast \asymp n^{2/(d-1)}$ for uniform keys on $\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$. Furthermore, we characterize the limiting laws of the ordered attention weights and of the attention output across all regimes of $\beta_n$: a subcritical regime in which the output reduces to a local average around $q$ with explicit deterministic bias and Gaussian fluctuations; a critical regime in which a finite collection of nearest keys retains macroscopic mass without single-key collapse; and a supercritical regime in which all mass concentrates on the closest key. Of notable interest is the subcritical case with identity value matrix where the attention map approximately implements a backward heat equation.
Let $(M,d,\mu)$ be a nice geodesic probability space (such as a manifold) and $X=\{x_i\}_{i\in [N]} \subset M$ a finite $\mu$-i.i.d. sample. Suppose we observe noisy distance random variables $d'(x_i,x_j)$. When can the true distances be recovered to small additive error? This question has attracted interest in two disparate fields: latent-space graph models and boundary-value inverse problems. We first show that, taking $N \asymp \epsilon^{-2d-2}|\log\epsilon|$ and using runtime $O(N^{2.5+o_d (1)})$, we can recover all distances in $X$ to additive error $O(\epsilon|\log\epsilon|)$ with high probability, assuming $\mathbb{E} d'(x_i, x_j) = F(d(x_i,x_j))$ for an unknown, increasing bilipschitz $F$ and with the $d'(x_i,x_j)$ allowed to be arbitrarily heterogeneous in their distribution as long as they are bounded in subgaussian norm. This generalizes existing work, which required $F$ to be known and made strict assumptions on the distribution of $d'(x_i, x_j)$. Achieving this generalization required a novel ``ruler-building'' procedure to learn $F$. We extend our results to a missing data case where we randomly lose access to noisy distances. Our second result uses ideas from the first to tackle a partial observability case: $X = Y \cup Z$ with $Z$ sampled from $M$ and $Y$ sampled from an observer subset satisfying visibility conditions that model the assumptions made on the boundary in boundary-value inverse problems. In this setting, we recover all pairwise distances in $Z$ to additive error $O(\epsilon)$ with $|Z| \asymp \epsilon^{-2d-2}|\log\epsilon|$, $|Y| \asymp \epsilon^{-\max\{d_\nu,4\}}$ with $d_\nu$ determined by the volume-growth properties of the probability measure on the observer set, and runtime $O(|Z|^3)$. This is, to our knowledge, the first quantitative guarantee for this observer/observed split under noise, which complements existing stability results for boundary data.
We study finite-horizon reinforcement learning with a safety constraint on the probability of reaching a failure set. In contrast to the well-studied safe reinforcement learning literature, we consider problems where the probability of reaching the failure set is vanishingly small, but the consequences of reaching the failure set are catastrophic. Direct simulation and estimation of the optimal policy is naturally ineffective when the failure probability is extremely small. Moreover, on a real system the controller can only choose actions, and this is not enough to make failures frequent. In contrast to the rare event simulation literature, our goal is not to estimate the probability of the rare event occurrence, but to upper bound it such that the failure constraint is satisfied. Thus, instead of sampling failures, we use the large deviations principle. We define a damage variable that on exceeding a certain threshold indicates failure. We study the cumulant generating function (CGF) as its positive root provides an upper bound on the failure probability via Cramer's theorem. We extend this approach to Markov decision processes with hitting times through state-action CGFs, and give finite-horizon and state-dependent versions of the bound. The state-action CGFs do not depend on the policy and can be estimated from regular transitions, so the bound can be checked for any policy a priori. This gives a policy improvement algorithm in which every policy satisfies the failure constraint with high probability.
It is known that randomly initialized neural networks have Gaussian behaviour in the $n\to \infty$ limit. Unfortunately, this approximation can be poor for finite $n$ and gets worse as one goes deeper into the network. In this work, we develop a more accurate approximation that is \emph{slightly} non-Gaussian, which we call the para-Gaussian distribution and is constructed from the Hermite polynomials. We show how this para-Gaussian approximation can lead to a practical recursive method to approximate the deeper layers of the network. Finally, we apply this theory to linear neural networks (where things can be solved exactly) and to ReLU neural networks (where things can be approximated).
For a known finite-dimensional model subspace, classical Gaussian regression theory guarantees that least squares eventually attains the parametric rate, with prediction error scaling as the subspace dimension divided by the sample size. Yet subspaces with the same number of unknown coefficients can require very different sample sizes to reach this regime. For subspaces of polynomials on the Boolean cube, a fundamental question is how restrictions on degree and ambient dimension jointly determine this threshold. Our main result sharply characterizes the worst-subspace minimax sample threshold over a substantial parameter range, revealing an exponential dependence on degree and precisely quantifying the joint effects of degree, ambient dimension, and subspace dimension. A small modification of our lower-bound construction reveals a strong separation: a single subspace can admit noiseless recovery with optimal sample complexity independent of degree, yet require essentially the worst-case sample size, exponential in degree, to attain the noisy parametric rate. To establish the sampling lower bound, we sharpen the Polyanskiy-Samorodnitsky uncertainty principle (J. Funct. Anal., '19) to uniformly optimal precision and extend its concentration guarantee to large subspaces in which every function concentrates most of its energy on one shared Hamming ball. The sampling upper bound follows from the sharp moment bound of Kirshner and Samorodnitsky (IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, '21) combined with empirical-process bounds.
This monograph provides an introduction to mean field reinforcement learning through the lens of Markov decision processes arising from large-population stochastic control with mean field interactions and common noise. Starting from the connection between multi-agent reinforcement learning and mean field control, it develops the probabilistic, mathematical, and control-theoretic framework needed to formulate representative-agent learning problems, analyze their relationship with finite-population systems, and study both general and linear-quadratic models. The presentation includes dynamic programming principles, propagation-of-chaos limits, and theoretical analyses of tabular Q-learning and policy-gradient methods. It also discusses numerical implementations, including tabular schemes and deep reinforcement learning methods such as deep deterministic policy gradient. The goal is to give readers a coherent bridge between mean field control theory and reinforcement learning methodology, emphasizing the mathematical structure of the problems and the design of tractable learning approaches for large stochastic populations.
We develop a quantitative statistical theory of transformers in the large-context regime by adopting the abstraction of contextual flow maps (CFMs): dynamical systems that evolve a distinguished token in the presence of a contextual measure across a stack of attention blocks. Within this framework, the finite-context model approximates an idealized infinite-context system in which the contextual measure is replaced by its underlying population, so that the context length $n$ becomes a statistical resource. Exploiting the McKean--Vlasov structure of the dynamics and the classical machinery of propagation of chaos, we establish a forward bound controlling the deviation between the finite- and infinite-context CFMs uniformly along depth, and a backward bound controlling the deviation between the corresponding training trajectories uniformly across iterations of online gradient descent. Both bounds achieve the optimal Wasserstein rate $n^{-1/d}$ for general CFMs and parametric rate $n^{-1/2}$ for a restricted class of CFMs that includes transformers as a special case. The analysis rests on a new Eulerian adjoint formulation of the loss gradient and stability estimates for the resulting forward--adjoint system, both of which may be of independent interest.
We study stationary solutions of McKean-Vlasov equations on the circle. We establish an exact equivalence between solutions of the stationary McKean-Vlasov equation and an infinite-dimensional quadratic system of equations over Fourier coefficients, allowing explicit characterization of stationary states in a sequence space rather than a function space. This framework provides a transparent description of local bifurcations, their periodicity and resonance structures, while accommodating singular potentials. We derive analytic expressions for the emergence, form and shape (supercritical, critical, subcritical or transcritical) of bifurcations involving possibly multiple Fourier modes and connect them with discontinuous phase transitions. We also characterize, under suitable assumptions, the detailed structure of the stationary bifurcating solutions through leading small-amplitude coefficients for arbitrarily many fixed Fourier modes. At the global level, we establish regularity and concavity properties of the free energy landscape, proving existence, compactness, and coexistence of globally minimizing stationary measures, and identifying discontinuous phase transitions with points of non-differentiability of the minimum free energy map. We apply the theory to the Noisy Mean-Field Transformer model, where we show how changing the inverse temperature $\beta$ affects the geometry of the infinitely many bifurcations from the uniform measure. We also discuss how increasing $\beta$ motivates the study of approximate multi-mode stationary profiles as candidates for a separate metastability analysis; persistence times require additional dynamical estimates. Moreover, we determine the exact threshold $\beta_0\simeq2.447$ separating continuous and discontinuous phase transitions in this model. The same threshold marks the change of the first bifurcation from supercritical to subcritical.
Objective functions based on Hellinger distance yield robust and efficient estimators of model parameters. Motivated by privacy and regulatory requirements encountered in contemporary applications, we derive in this paper \emph{private minimum Hellinger distance estimators}. The estimators satisfy a new privacy constraint, namely, Hellinger differential privacy, while retaining the robustness and efficiency properties. We demonstrate that Hellinger differential privacy shares several features of standard differential privacy while allowing for sharper inference. Additionally, for computational purposes, we also develop Hellinger differentially private gradient descent and Newton-Raphson algorithms. We illustrate the behavior of our estimators in finite samples using numerical experiments and verify that they retain robustness properties under gross-error contamination.
We consider the infinite-horizon average-reward restless bandit problem. We propose a novel two-set policy that maintains two dynamic subsets of arms: one subset of arms has a nearly optimal state distribution and takes actions according to an LP-Priority routine; the other subset of arms is driven towards the optimal state distribution and gradually merged into the first subset. We show that our two-set policy is asymptotically optimal with an $O(\exp(-C N))$ optimality gap for an $N$-armed problem, under the assumptions of aperiodic-unichain, non-degeneracy, and local stability. Our policy is the first to achieve exponential asymptotic optimality under the above set of easy-to-verify assumptions, whereas prior work either requires a global attractor assumption or only achieves an $O(1/\sqrt{N})$ optimality gap. We further discuss obstacles in weakening the assumptions by demonstrating examples where exponential asymptotic optimality is not achievable when any of the three assumptions is violated. Notably, we prove a lower bound for a large class of locally unstable restless bandits, showing that local stability is particularly fundamental for exponential asymptotic optimality. Finally, we use simulations to demonstrate that the two-set policy outperforms previous policies on certain restless bandit problems and performs competitively overall.
We establish mathematical foundations for optimal spatiotemporal vector fields governing continuous score-guided probability flows over bounded submanifolds $M \subset SE(3)$ on the Special Euclidean group $SE(3) \cong \mathbb{R}^3 \times SO(3)$. Modeling dynamic density evolution via a score-perturbed Lie-algebraic continuity equation under zero-flux boundary conditions, we resolve the non-local score drift singularity $s(g,t) = \nabla_{SE(3)} \log \rho(g,t)$ as $\rho \rightarrow 0^+$ via weighted parabolic flux dissipation bounds. Using left-invariant exponential group mollifiers, we derive boundary-preserving DiPerna--Lions commutator estimates tracking structure constants $\{c_{ij}^k\}$. Second, interpreting the optimality system as a 7D space-time elliptic operator $L_{7D} = -\Delta_{SE(3)} - \partial_t^2$ with zero-order corner compatibility on $\partial M \times \{0,T\}$, we establish Agmon--Douglis--Nirenberg $W_p^2(Q_T)$ shift estimates tracking Lie algebra constants, boundary geometry $\|\partial M\|_{C^2}$, and Ricci curvature $\|Ric_{SE(3)}\|_{L^\infty}$, yielding a full $C^\infty(\overline{Q}_T)$ Schauder bootstrap expansion. Third, we extend this system to non-cooperative Markov Mean-Field Games (MFGs) on $SE(3)$, establishing score-guided Nash equilibria via Schauder--Tychonoff fixed points. Crucially, the constant diagonal Ricci curvature $Ric_{SE(3)} = \mathrm{diag}(0,0,0,1/2,1/2,1/2)$ from $SO(3)$ induces a sharp Bochner--Weitzenb\"ock spectral gap boost $\lambda_1(-\Delta_{SE(3)}) \ge \lambda_1(-\Delta_{\mathbb{R}^3}) + 1/2 > 0$. This positive rotational curvature enhances the Lie-algebraic Poincar\'e coercivity constant, demonstrating that intrinsic group curvature stabilizes score-guided flows against dispersion and expands the critical Nash uniqueness horizon $T_{SE(3)}^*$ beyond flat Euclidean limits.
There exists little mathematical theory explaining why Transformer architectures are empirically successful even for non-Markovian data. To this end, this paper studies next-token prediction via stochastic optimal control theoretically trained Transformers for such sources, where we consider either stationary and ergodic non-Markovian sources or those which are hidden Markov models of some finite order (possibly non-stationary). In either case, we first obtain error bounds via finite models with finite window approximations. For stationary ergodic sources, the resulting error is bounded by an entropy gap; for $N$th order Markovian sources, it decays at an exponential rate $\alpha^{\lfloor M/N\rfloor}$, where $M$ is the window length and $\alpha$ is determined by filter stability (and the Dobrushin coefficients of the transition and measurement kernels). We then construct a Transformer of depth $M+1$, one head per layer, realizing the truncated filter, and we optimally train it with stochastic control developed in earlier work, which rigorously returns a near optimal Transformer. In particular, we show that for a non-Markovian source, either under stationarity and ergodicity for general models or under filter stability for hidden Markov models, an optimally trained Transformer has arbitrarily small performance error with increasing context length, data, and approximation refinement. Numerical studies accompany the theory.
We show that outlier eigenvectors of the Bethe Hessian achieve weak recovery in the stochastic block model down to the Kesten-Stigum threshold, for every fixed common expected degree $d>1$. This extends previous recovery guarantees, which required $d$ to be sufficiently large. This threshold is information-theoretically optimal for the symmetric two-community model and is conjectured to mark the limit of efficient recovery in broader symmetric models. Our result matches the recovery guarantees of non-backtracking spectral methods while using Hermitian $n\times n$ matrices. To do this, we identify recursive formulas for the negative outlier eigenvalues and show that their eigenspaces have nonvanishing overlap with the corresponding planted eigenspaces. The proof constructs approximate eigenvectors from the planted labels on the limiting Poisson tree, with weights given by its Green's function, and transfers these approximations to the finite graph.
We show that the transformer architecture emerges as the score of last-token laws in a natural statistical model of language, where sentences are empirical measures of tokens, a language is a law on $P(S^d)$, and our prior belief is that sentences carry no structure at all. By the maximum-entropy principle, we select the law closest to this prior in relative entropy among those reproducing an observed sentence-level statistic. We discuss the relevance of the statistic in the posterior interaction between tokens and we build a statistic, able to capture that interaction, with Luce's choice axiom truncated at the lowest relational order. This procedure gives the softmax choice rule, with the attention cross-moment as its mean parameter. The query--key matrix is then the Lagrange multiplier of a maximum-entropy problem inside each sentence, and the value matrix the multiplier of the constraint over the language, so that the two are untied. Under the optimal entropic law we then show that a transformer head appears in the score of the last-token law. For ordered sentences, causal masking follows from the masked reference choice rule, and with a next-token cross-moment the score equals one causally masked attention head. We also discuss multi-head attention, weight-tied unembedding, and a heuristic reading of residual blocks as projected Langevin steps.
Allowing for small fraction of errors in retrieved stored binary patterns, Hopfield-Hebbian neural network (NN) associative memory dynamics [14] achieves linearly scaled capacity. The famous proportionality constant $\alpha_c\approx 0.14$ is obtained in a large dimensional scenario as the ratio of the number of reliably stored patterns $m$ and the patterns' length $n$ under the assumption that uniformly randomly chosen binary patterns are \emph{independent} among themselves. While such an idealized scenario is now well understood, more practical scenarios with correlated/noisy datasets remaining challenging even for classical statistical mechanics replica approaches. We consider precisely such practical settings where each \emph{archetype} pattern is replaced with $M$ correlated \emph{examples} with parameter $r$ governing the quality of correlation. We develop a powerful Random Duality Theory (RDT) based framework to analyze correlated data and already on the first level of RDT lifting obtain capacity characterizations that remarkably well match behavior exhibited through simulated dynamics. Moreover, characterizations explicitly feature correlation parameters $M$ and $r$, which allows to precisely determine their effects on phase-transitioning behavior of the underlying dynamics. Our results are also a well-fitting complement to the existing literature. Namely, to circumvent challenging statistical mechanics analyses, an alternative combination of spectral and replica methods is considered in [4]. We confirm that [4]'s elegant spectral characterizations are excellent approximations in the low correlated regime. At the same time, we also close the gap in the regimes with higher correlation levels where spectral methods deviate from the practical dynamics performance.
We consider the tensor principal components analysis (tensor PCA) problem on the sphere, in which we are asked to recover an unknown vector in $\mathcal{S}_N=\{x\in\mathbb{R}^N:\lVert x\rVert^2=N\}$ from a noisy observation of its $k$-th tensor power, for a fixed $k\ge3$. Tensor PCA exhibits a well-studied information-computation gap: global algorithms such as spectral methods and sum-of-squares work above an algorithmic threshold, below which we know matching lower bounds (against these and some other restricted models of computation). In contrast, local algorithms such as Markov chains were only known to succeed from a random initialization at a polynomially larger signal-to-noise ratio, and were believed to be inferior to global algorithms for tensor PCA. Continuing the program initiated in Part I [arXiv:2610.16705], we show that spherical Langevin dynamics, when supplemented with annealing and ergodic averaging, achieves polynomial-time strong recovery above the algorithmic threshold from a uniformly random initialization. Together with Part I, our results demonstrate that local Markov chains can succeed all the way down to the algorithmic threshold from an uninformative cold start.
We study conformal prediction under covariate shift with a known covariate density ratio, seeking prediction sets with minimum expected length under the target distribution. For every calibration sample size, we prove that the rule combining the inverse conditional-density score with randomized weighted conformal calibration minimizes this expected length among all rules valid over the full weighted-exchangeability class. We approximate the oracle using quantile and kernel histograms, including forest-weighted estimators, and select estimators and tuning parameters by resampling to estimate calibrated target length. On a bounded response domain, we bound excess length linearly in $L^1$ density error at fixed calibration size, without requiring a uniform positive lower bound on the true density. We also bound selection-pool and resampling errors. Under explicit growth conditions, the selected procedure approaches the same oracle while the calibration size remains fixed. Experiments on 36 known-density configurations and four public regression datasets compare coverage, prediction-set length, and runtime with existing methods. In targeted low-coverage and strong-shift comparisons, inverse-density selection yields shorter mean sets in most cases and lower mean runtime than the evaluated weighted baselines, with some differences in achieved coverage.